城市空气污染数值预报模式系统及其应用

 介绍了城市空气污染数值预报模式系统,并利用该系统对济南市空气污染进行了预报.结果表明,该系统具有较好的预报性能;预报与实测值之间有较好的相关性;空气质量级别的预报效果更好,对SO₂、PM₁₀和NO₂ 3项污染物的级别预报准确率分别为84.6%,83.2%和94.6%,其总体级别预报准确率达到87.5%.研究结果还显示,济南市的SO₂污染已得到明显改善,机动车尾气污染相对较轻,而PM₁₀的污染比较严重,已上升为首要污染物,其来源、扩散、转化机制及其控制措施的研究是目前济南市面临的首要问题.

Numerical model system of urban air pollution prediction and its application

The urban air pollution prediction numerical model system is briefly introduced in this paper. The model system is used to predict air pollution in Jinan city. The results show well prediction capability of the system and the correlation between prediction and observation is good, the prediction effect of air quality categories is better. The prediction accuracy rates of air quality categories of three pollutants SO2, PM10 and NO2 are 84.6%, 83.2% and 94.6% respectively, and their total accuracy rate reaches 87.5%. The results also denote that in Jinan city, the pollution of SO2 has been improved obviously and the pollution of mobile sources is comparatively light, but the pollution of PM10 is more serious and become principal pollutants. The study on sources, diffusion, transformation mechanism and control measures of PM10 is the primary problem in Jinan city today.