碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响及传导机制

以2005~2017年30个省市面板数据为研究样本，采用双重差分、动态效应检验和三重差分等方法，考察了碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响效果及异质性，同时利用多重中介效应模型，解析碳交易对工业碳生产率的实现机制.结果表明，碳交易政策显著提升了工业碳生产率，实现了"降碳促经"效果，且该效果保持逐年上升趋势；异质性检验表明，各试点地区对政策的响应程度存在一定差异，北京、天津、上海、湖北工业碳生产率的提升效果较为显著，而广东、重庆未能对政策做出充分响应；机制分析发现，碳交易政策能够有效激励环境治理效应、结构优化效应和技术革新效应，进而影响工业碳生产率提升，其中结构优化效应是响应政策最为充分的机制.本文研究结果可为中国未来碳市场运行提供一定参考.

The impact of carbon trading policy on industrial carbon productivity and its transmission mechanism

Based on panel data of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2017, this paper evaluated the heterogeneous impacts of carbon trading policies on industrial carbon productivity using the methods of differences-in-differences, dynamic effect analysis, and triple difference. Meanwhile, this paper adopted the multiple mediating effect model to explore the impact mechanism of carbon trading polices on industrial carbon productivity. The results show that impacted by the carbon trading policies, the carbon productivity increased by 29.2% in pilot regions when compared with non-pilot regions. The heterogeneity test shows the carbon trading polices had significant impacts on the carbon productivity in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hubei, while they had small impact on the carbon productivity in Guangdong and Chongqing. The mechanism analysis shows that carbon trading policies can effectively improve carbon productivity by exerting the mediating effects of environmental governance, structural optimization and technological innovation, and the mediating effect of structural optimization effect is the largest. These findings will provide policy implications for the development of China's carbon market in the future.