基于生态系统服务权衡的生态安全多情景决策

聚焦于成渝城市群生态安全格局识别的主题，耦合多源数据，运用相应的模型与算法对区域粮食生产、碳固存、产水、土壤保持、生境质量5类生态系统服务进行估算，在此基础上借助空间统计与分析厘清生态系统服务功能间的权衡/协同关系，并构建不同风险情景，明确未来区域发展的生态安全格局.结果显示，2000~2015年，成渝城市群粮食生产、固碳和产水量这3类服务功能均呈下降趋势，土壤保持、生境质量服务呈上升趋势，且各类服务的空间分异性突出；固碳、产水、土壤保持与生境质量两两之间均表现为协同关系，粮食生产与这4类服务间表现为权衡关系，但这种冲突性在区域发展过程中逐渐呈减弱趋势；在空间分布上，成渝城市群生态系统服务间的权衡/协同关系表现出了一定的集聚特征；不同决策风险下生态系统服务间的权衡值也不同，随着决策风险系数的增加权衡值呈现先上升后下降的趋势；最终确定风险系数α=1.6为最适宜情景，此时权衡值最高、区域生态系统风险适中.将决策者的态度纳入生态安全格局识别过程中，使结果更全面，为城市群生态安全格局评价和管理提供科学支撑.

Scenario decision of ecological security based on the trade-off among ecosystem services

Focusing on the theme of identifying the ecological security pattern of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration and coupling multi-source data, this study uses corresponding models and algorithms to estimate the value of regional food production, carbon sequestration, water production, soil conservation, and habitat quality. On this basis, spatial statistics and analysis are used to clarify the trade-off/synergy relationship between ecosystem service functions, and different risk scenarios are established to clarify the ecological security pattern which is suitable for regional development. It showed that from 2000 to 2015, the three ecosystem service functions of food production, carbon sequestration and water production in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration displayed a downward trend, while the other two functions of soil conservation and habitat quality had an upward trend, and the spatial distribution of various services was obviously heterogeneous. There was a synergistic relationship among the four ecosystem services of carbon sequestration, water production, soil conservation and habitat quality. Food production and these four ecosystem services all showed a trade-off relationship, but this conflict was gradually weakening in the process of regional development. In terms of spatial distribution, the trade-off/synergy relationship between these ecosystem services of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration showed certain agglomeration characteristics. The trade-off between ecosystem services under different decision- making risks was also different. With the increase of the decision-making risk coefficient, the trade-off value showed a trend of rising first and then decreasing. Finally, the optimal scenario was determined as the risk coefficient α=1.6, the trade-off value was the highest and the risk was moderate under this scenario. Incorporating the attitude of decision-makers into the process of identifying the ecological security pattern to make the results more comprehensive and provide scientific support for the evaluation and management of the ecological security pattern of urban agglomerations.