广东省土地利用驱动下红树林潜在生境预测

为探索土地利用变化对红树林潜在生境分布的影响，融合MaxEnt模型和Dyna-CLUE模型，建立了土地利用驱动下红树林生境变化的定量预测方法.以中国红树林分布面积最大的广东省作为研究区，利用MaxEnt模型模拟红树林在自然条件下的理论适生区，采用Dyna-CLUE模型预测2030年的三种土地利用变化情景，最后将模拟的土地利用格局作为限制条件估算未来可供红树林生境分布的空间.结果表明，2020年广东省红树林潜在生境面积约34531hm²，2030年趋势情景下湿地将减少58.61%，红树林潜在生境面积将退化至24375hm²；可持续发展情景下通过改进土地利用策略并开展一定规模的退塘还湿，红树林潜在生境面积将增加至38125hm²；生态保护情景下，如能开展全面的生态保护和恢复，红树林潜在生境面积可达到47525hm².本研究的研究方法可有效预测不同海岸带土地利用驱动下红树林潜在生境的空间变化.研究结果发现，不同土地利用政策会对红树林潜在生境分布造成明显影响；通过改进政策，可显著提升红树林潜在生境的面积和完整性.本结论可为区域红树林保护与生境修复的空间规划及政策制定等提供科学支持.

Predicting mangrove forest distribution driven by land uses in Guangdong Province

In order to explore the influence of land use option on the potential distribution of mangrove forests, MaxEnt model and Dyna-CLUE model were coupled to establish a quantitative relationship between mangrove distribution and land use, using Guangdong Province, which has the largest mangrove distribution area in China, as a research area. MaxEnt model was used to simulate the theoretical suitable area of mangroves under natural conditions. Dyna-CLUE model was used to predict land use change in 2030 under three scenarios. The simulated land use patterns were used as constrains to estimate future mangrove distribution. The results showed that the potential suitable area for mangrove forest in Guangdong Province was about 34531hm² in 2020. The potential suitable area of mangroves could reach 47525hm² under conservation scenario by implementing comprehensive ecological protection and restoration projects. Under the sustainable development scenario, mangrove aera would increase to 38125hm² through returning part of current aquaculture to wetland. However, the mangrove forest areas would be reduced to 24375hm² (i.e. a reduction of 58.61%) in 2030under the business-as-usual scenario. The model coupling method developed in this study could effectively predict the potential distribution of mangroves under different coastal land use strategies. The results of the study found that different land use policies would have a significant impact on the future mangrove distribution. The findings provide scientific support for policy makers to protect and restore mangrove forests.