臭氧和PM2.5对慢阻肺死亡影响及气温修饰效应

采用广义相加模型评估臭氧和细颗粒物（PM_2.5）暴露对2008~2017年上海浦东居民慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）死亡的超额危险度（ER）和寿命损失年（YLL）的影响.结果表明：臭氧污染集中在4~6月，PM_2.5污染集中在12月、1~2月，10a间臭氧浓度逐年增加，PM_2.5有小幅下降；在最大滞后效应下，臭氧每增加10μg/m³，ER和YLL分别为1.34%（95% CI：0.57%~2.12%）和54.98（95% CI：16.36~106.41）人·a；PM_2.5每增加10μg/m³，两者分别为2.66%（95% CI：1.54%~3.79%）和130.92（95% CI：42.47~274.28）人·a；臭氧对男性和<85岁人群影响显著，PM_2.5对女性和³85岁人群影响显著；暖季时臭氧暴露相关的COPD死亡风险更高，冷季时PM_2.5暴露相关的COPD死亡风险更高.臭氧和PM_2.5致COPD死亡的影响可能因气温水平而异.

Effect of ozone and PM2.5 on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease deaths and the effect modification by the air temperature

Generalized additive models were used to evaluate the effects of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in Pudong, Shanghai from 2008 to 2017 on the excess risk (ER) and years of life lost (YLL) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) deaths. The results showed that: (1) Ozone pollution was extensively serious during April to June, PM_2.5 pollution was concentrated in December, January, and February; Ozone concentration increased and PM_2.5 decreased slightly in the past 10 years. (2) Under the maximum lag effect, for every 10μg/m³ increase in ozone, ER and YLL were 1.34% (95% confidence interval, 95%CI: 0.57%~2.12%) and 54.98 (95%CI: 16.36~106.41) person-years respectively, and each 10μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 were 2.66% (95%CI: 1.54%~3.79%) and 130.92 (95%CI: 42.47~274.28) person-years, respectively. (3) Ozone leads to an increase of COPD deaths in males and people <85y, and PM_2.5 leads to an increase of COPD deaths in females and people ³85y. (4) The risk of ozone-related COPD death is higher in the warm season and the risk of PM_2.5-related COPD death is higher in the cold season. In conclusion, the effects of COPD deaths caused by ozone and PM_2.5 may vary by temperature level.