京津冀城市群大气污染传输规律研究——两组排放清单的比较分析

利用WRF/CALPUFF耦合模型，在同样重污染气象条件下，选择了当下模拟应用最广的两组排放清单对4种主要污染物（NO_x，SO₂，PM_2.5和PM₁₀）进行京津冀城市间区域传输贡献比较分析.其中一组排放清单来自政府的环境统计（以下称：环统排放清单），另一组排放清单是来自中国多尺度排放清单（以下称：MEIC排放清单）.污染物的浓度空间分布表明，两种排放清单下污染物浓度均呈现北部以唐山中心，南部以石家庄-邯郸为中心的分布特征，均是由两个浓度最高的中心向外逐渐降低.但是环统排放清单下模拟的污染物浓度高值区范围更大，更接近实际监测数据.基于不同的清单输入，一些城市的传输角色存在一些差异.例如，对于4种污染物，两种排放清单模拟出的沧州与周边城市的净传输方向完全相反，在MEIC排放清单中，沧州以向外净传输为主，即为源；而在环统排放清单中，沧州则变成了净输入城市，即为汇.这些结论将影响大气联防联控中各城市源汇责任的认定，在实际环境管理中应注重多源数据的选择、验证和比较.

Atmospheric transmission rule on air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration: A comparative analysis of two emission inventories

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the California Puff (CALPUFF) air quality model was applied to study the effects of different emission inventories on the regional contribution of atmospheric transmission in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration under heavy pollution weather conditions. The results of four pollutants was compared (NO_x, SO₂, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) from two sets of typical emission inventories (the Environmental Statistics Emission Inventory from government and the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) from Qinghua University). From the perspective of the spatial distribution of the simulated concentrations, the results based on the two sets of emission inventories in December 2012 were similar. The concentration of pollutants under two emission inventories showed a central distribution, with Tangshan as the centre in north and Shijiazhuang-Handan as centre in the south. However, there were still some significant differences in the transmission roles of some cities based on different emission inventory inputs. For example, for the four pollutants, the transmission direction between Cangzhou and its surrounding cities were completely opposite under the two emission inventories. Cangzhou was the relativer source city among the thirteen cities based on the MEIC emissions inventories. However, based on Environmental Statistics Emission Inventory, Cangzhou was a receptor city. These conclusions will affect the identification of the source and receptors cities in air pollution joint prevention and control. In environmental management, we should pay attention to the verification and comparison of different emissions inventories.