2020和2030年碳强度目标约束下中国碳排放权的省区分解

建立了碳排放权省区分配模型，在中国2020年和2030年碳强度目标约束下，分阶段进行碳排放权的省区分配.结果表明：2016~2020年，中国各地区碳排放权分配相差悬殊.碳排放权配额最多的5个省份分别是经济发展水平和历史碳排放量均处于全国前列的广东、江苏、内蒙古、山东和山西地区，配额最少的5个省份依次是安徽、吉林、甘肃、宁夏和贵州.同时，各地区面临不同的减排压力.山西、山东、辽宁和陕西在2016年初始节点的碳空间严重不足，需要承担较大的减排压力.而广东、江苏和上海等地减排压力相对乐观.2021~2030年，各省份的碳排放权分配与第1阶段分配结果大体一致，所有省份在2030年碳排放空间均有盈余.但是部分地区（如新疆、陕西、吉林、青海、甘肃、宁夏和贵州等）截至2030年碳排放剩余空间相对有限，按期完成减排目标仍然存在较大压力.考虑到各省区面临不同的减排任务和压力，制定差异化的减排政策并在政策上给予适当的扶持是保证中国减排目标顺利达成的关键.

Provincial decomposition of China's carbon emission rights under the constraint of 2020 and 2030 carbon intensity targets

A provincial allocation model for carbon emission rights was established in this paper. Under the constraints of China's 2020 and 2030 carbon intensity targets, the provinces' allocation of carbon emission rights was carried out in stages. The results show that the distribution of carbon emission rights varies from region to region in China from 2016 to 2020. The five provinces with the most carbon emission rights quotas are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Shanxi, where the economic development level and historical carbon emissions are among the highest in the country. The five provinces with the lowest quota are Anhui, Jilin and Gansu. Ningxia and Guizhou. The pressure on emission reduction varies greatly across regions. Shanxi, Shandong, Liaoning and Shaanxi have serious shortage of carbon space at the initial node in 2016, and they need to bear greater pressures to reduce emissions. Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai have relatively low emission reduction pressures. From 2021 to 2030, the distribution of carbon emission rights in each province is basically the same as that in the first stage. All provinces have surplus in carbon emission space in 2030. As of 2030, some regions (such as Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Jilin, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Guizhou, etc.) have relatively limited carbon emissions, and there are still significant pressures to meet the emission reduction targets on time. Considering that different provinces and regions face different emission reduction tasks and pressures, formulating differentiated emission reduction policies and giving appropriate support to policies is the key to ensuring the smooth achievement of China's emission reduction targets.