兰州市空气污染对呼吸系统疾病入院人数的影响

为评价兰州市空气污染对居民呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的影响,采用时间序列半参数广义相加模型(GAM),在控制了长期趋势、“星期几效应”及气象因子等混杂因素的影响后,分析2007~2009年兰州市空气污染物与呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的暴露-反应关系,并按性别和年龄层建立模型.3种空气污染物有一定的滞后效应,PM10滞后2d或5d,SO2滞后3d,NO2在当天或滞后3d对呼吸系统疾病入院人数的相对危险度(RR)值达到最大,其中PM10、SO2和NO2对呼吸系统疾病全人群的RR值分别为1.015、1.049和1.040.年龄￡15岁的人群对兰州市空气污染最为敏感,其次为年龄365岁的老年人群;空气污染对男性的影响较女性明显.

Relationship between air pollutant and respiratory diseases hospitalization in Lanzhou

To quantitatively analyze the effect of air pollution on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Lanzhou. A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between air pollution and daily respiratory hospital visits from 2007 to 2009 in Lanzhou after controlling long time trend, the “day of week” effect and confounding factors of meteorology. At the same time, the model was established based on the sex and age groups. The three kinds of air pollutants all had certain lag effect in which PM10 lagged in 2 or 5 days, SO2 lagged in 3 days and NO2 lagged in 0 or 3 days. The relative risks of PM10, SO2, NO2 were 1.015, 1.049 and 1.040 for all hospital visits, respectively. The population with the age less than 15-year-old is the most sensitive to air pollution in Lanzhou ,followed by the population with the age more than 65-year-old. The influence of air pollution on the male is more obvious than the female.