区域综合环境风险评价方法体系研究

为准确识别环境事故风险因子扩散规律及环境风险主导因素，本研究将环境风险的3个主体“风险源-介质-受体”作为系统层，结合层次分析法（AHP）与时序加权平均算子（TOWA）建立动态模型计算标准层指标贡献率，最后基于空间地理特性确定指标层，加权计算单项风险，进而建立区域综合环境风险评价方法体系，并以南京市为案例研究对象进行综合环境风险评估.结果表明，南京市整体呈现一般风险水平，风险水平的高值区主要分布在靠近长江的江北新区核心区、南京主城区.该方法在保证指标体系评估完整性的同时，引入了区域时空特征，提高了区域环境风险管理的精细化与空间可视化程度.

Research on regional comprehensive environmental risk assessment method system

In this research we aim to identify the diffusion patterns of environment related risk factors for accidents and the leading environmental risk factors. The system layer is combined with three main parts of environmental risks, the source, media and receptor. Together with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Time Ordered Weighted Averaging (TOWA) operator, we establish a dynamic model to calculate contribution rate of indexes for the standard level. The index level is determined in follow based on spatial geographic characteristics. Individual risks generated from the index level are weighted to calculate the final regional comprehensive environmental risk. Here Nanjing was chosen for synthesized Environmental risk assessment. Our results showed that Nanjing was at moderate risk level while high value areas were mainly distributed in the central area of Jiangbei New District and the downtown near Yangtze River. The established assessment method ensures the evaluation completeness for index system. It also refines the regional environmental risk management as well as realizes the visualization of assessment results by introducing spatiotemporal characteristics of the studied region.