工业园共生演化定量研究

以江苏泰兴精细化工园及南通农药化工园为例,将最大流原理及自组织特征映射神经网络用于研究非成熟工业园的产业共生演化.由于演算得到的序参量ξ值虽然可以表征各工业园共生效益随时间变化情况,却无法用来横向比较工业园间共生效益,因此对计算过程进行了改进,提出新的序参量计算方法.比较了序参量ξ与产业关联度、交换量等指标后,定义ξ为产业共生演化效率指标,并将卡伦堡工业园2005年得出的ξ值2.87作为共生演化稳定状态标准值.研究发现,2个工业园在较少人工干预下,ξ值逐年上升,分别从0.04,0.133增加到1.51和1.675,但远小于卡伦堡工业园的2005年ξ值.建议在工业园自发形成进程基础上,加以合理引导,促进工业园更好更快地发展.

Quantitative studies on symbiosis evolution of industrial parks

The maximum flux principle and self-organized feature map(SOM) were applied in the studies of the evolution of immature industrial park with two cases. The order parameter ξ could be used to compare time sequence of symbiosis benefit of a park, but it couldn’t reflect the difference of symbiosis benefit between different parks. Then the calculation was modified and a new ξ was proposed. After being compared with the associate degree indicator and exchange amount indicator ξ was defined as symbiosis evolution efficiency index, and Kalundborg industrial park’s ξ value 2.87 in 2005 was defined as standard value of symbiosis evolution. The suggestion was also put forward that as two industrial parks’ ξ values have rising year after year with little interference of people, from 0.04 and 1.33 to 1.51 and 1.675 respectively. They are still much smaller than Kalundborg industrial park’s ξ value in 2005.Thus leaders of the industrial park should rationally guide the development based on its spontaneous forming process, to promote better and quicker development of the parks in long term.