中国典型社会源危险废物的资源潜力分析

对中国典型社会源危险废物的潜在资源量进行了预测与估算.在界定社会源危险废物概念和构建其物质代谢模型的基础上，根据GM（1，1）灰色预测模型及Weibull寿命分布模型，利用2006~2015年中国典型社会源危险废物原产品消费的时间序列样本数据，模拟了其消费量和报废量的动态变化趋势，进一步建立了潜在资源量预测模型并分析了潜在资源的再利用价值.据预测，2025年中国将产生废旧铅酸电池4.16亿kW·h、节能灯6.34亿支和线路板1.09亿m²，可回收的资源总量达1200万t以上，包括贵金属0.15万t、具有环境危害性的重金属368万t和其它可回收资源879万t.

Analysis on the potentials of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes in China

This paper predicts and estimates the potential amount of resources that can be recycled from typical social-sourced hazardous wastes in China. This paper defines the concept of social-sourced hazardous wastes in China and constructs their material metabolism model. Leveraging GM(1,1) Model and Weibull Distribution Model, we predict the consumption and scrap amount dynamic of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes and further build the forecasting model of potential amount of resources that can be generated from those wastes. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility and value of potential resources. Our research data contain the amount of original products (of typical social-sourced hazardous wastes) consumed in China from 2006 to 2015. As the results of our prediction, by 2025, 416 million kW·h of spent lead-acid batteries, 634 million of waste energy-saving bulbs, and 109 million square meters of waste circuit boards will be produced in China; potentially more than 12 million tons of renewable resources can be recycled from these typical social-sourced hazardous wastes, mainly including 1500 tons of precious metals, 3.68 million tons of hazardous heavy metals, and 8.79 million tons of other renewable resources.