全国碳市场引入配额拍卖机制的经济影响——基于CGE模型的分析

基于电力部门细分的CGE模型,针对碳配额分配中有偿拍卖的引入、是否配套实施碳税政策以及碳减排目标设定等关键机制问题,设置了差异化的政策情景,模拟分析了不同机制设计对碳市场及宏观经济带来的影响.研究发现:全国碳市场引入配额拍卖机制有助于降低碳交易价格、促进我国碳市场总体规模扩大并激发碳市场活力,高碳行业将成为碳配额拍卖市场的主要参与方,且有助于我国抑制重点控排行业,特别是火力发电行业的发展,并促进清洁电力产出的增加,但相比完全免费分配碳配额而言对经济增长的负面影响更大;对碳市场未覆盖行业实施碳税配套措施可以进一步降低碳价、提高碳配额交易量,减缓碳市场运行对经济增长的负面影响并增加政府收入.我国应在全国碳市场建设进程中适时引入配额拍卖机制并实施碳税配套措施,在兼顾碳市场有效性及社会经济承受能力的前提下逐步提高有偿拍卖在碳配额分配中的比例.

The economic impacts of introducing auction into carbon allowance allocation mechanism in the national carbon market: Simulation based on CGE model

Differentiated policy scenarios based on the CGE model features an electricity sector subdivision designed in this paper, to address the introduction of the quota auction, whether the carbon tax should be implemented, and the setting of carbon emission reduction targets. On this basis, the impacts of different designs on carbon market and macroeconomic performance analyzed this paper. Results showed that the introduction of quota auction mechanism could help to decrease carbon price, enlarge the carbon market scale, and spur the vitality of the carbon market. In addition, carbon intensive industries were the principal participants in the auction market; and the auction mechanism could restrain the development of industries covered by national carbon market, especially thermal power industry, and promote electricity outputs of the clean power industries. However, compared to the totally free allocation of carbon allowances, the introduction of quota auction mechanism impacted the GDP growth more negatively. Levying carbon tax on industries outside the carbon market could further reduce the carbon price, increase the trading volume of carbon allowance, mitigate the negative impacts on the GDP growth, and increase government revenues. China should introduce the quota auction mechanism into the national carbon market in due course and implement carbon tax as a complementary measure. The proportion of carbon allowance allocated by auction needs to be gradually increased based on the consideration of the effectiveness of carbon market and economic affordability.