华北地区地表臭氧时空分布特征及驱动因子

利用趋势分析(TA)、地理时空加权回归模型(GTWR)和多因素广义相加模型(MGAM),研究了2015~2020年华北地区O₃浓度的时空分布规律及驱动因素间的复杂非线性关系.结果表明,华北地区年均O₃浓度>70μg/m³,整体呈持续增长趋势,平均增加速率为2.3μg/(m³.a)(P<0.01);季节上O₃浓度呈春夏高、秋冬低,其中夏季(136.6μg/m³)>春季(112.4μg/m³)>秋季(78.8μg/m³)>冬季(56.5μg/m³);空间上呈西南高、东北低的分布格局.气温是华北地区O₃浓度的主要气象驱动因子,其次是风速与降水;O₃浓度与气温、风速呈显著正相关,与气压、相对湿度、降水、能见度呈显著负相关;气温与相对湿度、气温与能见度以及气温与气压的交互作用对O₃浓度的影响较大. 第二产业占GDP的比重是华北地区O₃浓度的主要社会经济驱动因素,工业生产用电量、工业SO₂排放量对O₃浓度变化也有一定影响.

The spatiotemporal variation of surface ozone and the main driving factors in North China

We used trend analysis (TA), geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model and multi-factor generalized additive model (MGAM) to investigate the spatiotemporal variation and complex nonlinear relationships between O₃ concentration and the factors influencing O₃ concentration in North China from 2015 to 2020. The six annual average O₃ concentration in North China was greater than 70μg/m³, with an overall trend of continuous growth and an increased rate of 2.3μg/(m³·a) on average (P<0.01); the annual O₃ concentration of North China was the highest in summer (136.6μg/m³), followed by spring (112.4μg/m³), autumn (78.8μg/m³) and winter (56.5μg/m³); the spatial variation was high in the southwest and low in the northeast. Air temperature was the primary meteorological driver of O₃ concentration in North China, followed by wind speed and precipitation; O₃ concentration had a significant positive correlation with air temperature and wind speed, and a significant negative correlation with air pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, and visibility; the interaction of temperature and relative humidity, temperature and visibility, and temperature and barometric pressure was significant. The share of secondary industry in GDP was the primarily socio-economic driver factor of O₃ concentration increase in North China, and the influence of industrial production electricity consumption and industrial SO₂ emissions on the change of O₃ concentration played an roles, too.