中国民航业中长期碳排放预测与技术减排潜力分析

基于LEAP构建自下而上的中国民航业能源系统模型,设置冻结、现有政策、力度、替代和革命五组情景,深入分析民航业的驱动因子和发展趋势,探讨中国民航业中长期低碳发展的技术路径.结果显示,预计2060年左右人均乘机次数翻两番,突破2人次,冻结情景下2060年会带来高达6.9亿t的碳排放.力度情景下,民航业碳排放有望在2044年左右达峰,峰值水平控制在3亿t左右,40年累积减排近50%,仅需增加约1万亿人民币的成本.稳步推进机队更新换代,加快基础设施提升和运营操作改进,发展可持续航空燃料是民航业必须依赖的减排手段,分别能带来44.1%、29.5%和26.4%的减排量.因此,民航业要尽早制定行业"双碳"目标和实施路径计划,中短期统筹推进空域改革、空中交通管理和航司精细化管理,大力支持国产大飞机的发展,长期推动可持续航空燃料全产业链商业化和市场化.

Medium- and long-term carbon emission forecast and technological emission reduction potential analysis of China's civil aviation industry

This study develops a bottom-up energy system model of China's civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model framework, sets FROZEN, GOAL, MAX, SAF, and REVOLUTION scenarios to quantitatively analyze the industry’s driving factors and development trends, and discusses the medium- and long-term low-carbon development technological pathways. The results show that the number of flights per person is expected to quadruple to more than two by 2060, which will imply up to 690million tons of carbon emissions under the FROZEN (baseline) scenario. Under the MAX scenario, carbon emissions from China’s civil aviation industry are expected to reach a peak at around 300million tons in 2044. The cumulative emission reduction of nearly 50% over the 40 years only requires an additional cost of about 1trillion RMB (compared to the baseline). Promoting fleet replacement, accelerating infrastructure upgrading and operation improvement, and developing sustainable aviation fuels are the essential emission reduction means for the civil aviation industry, which can bring 44.1%, 29.5%, and 26.4% emission reduction respectively. In conclusion, China’s civil aviation industry should formulate the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" and its implementation plans as soon as possible: promoting the airspace reform, air traffic management, and refined airline management in the short- and medium-term, providing vigorous support to the development of domestic large aircraft, and accelerating the commercialization and marketization of industry chain of sustainable aviation fuels in the long term.