未来RCP4.5情景下黄海DMS浓度变化模拟与分析

使用CORDEX-EA过去气候态(2000-2009年)与RCP4.5情景下近未来气候态(2041-2050年)大气强迫结果驱动中国东部陆架海域耦合DMS模块生态模型,模拟了黄海过去及近未来表层DMS浓度(C_DMS),探究了黄海近未来C_DMS时空分布的变化及其影响因素.结果表明:近未来黄海C_DMS的年循环发生变化,北黄海C_DMS极高值出现月份由5、9月转变为4、10月,南黄海由4、9月转变为4、8月;局部C_DMS高值区也发生变化,春季山东半岛附近海域、夏季苏北浅滩、南黄海中东部、秋季南黄海东部C_DMS高值区加强,夏季山东半岛附近C_DMS高值区减弱.近未来热通量、风应力对山东半岛、南黄海中东部海域C_DMS影响较大;降水量、云量对西朝鲜湾C_DMS的影响占优;苏北浅滩C_DMS受多个气候因子共同作用.

Simulations of DMS concentration changes in the Yellow Sea under the future RCP4.5 scenario

In order to investigate the past and near future tempo-spatial distributions of surface DMS concentrations (C_DMS), characteristics of change, and their influencing factors in the Yellow Sea, the C_DMS in the Yellow Sea were simulated using a DMS module coupled to an ecological dynamics model of the eastern shelf seas of China. The past climate state dataset (2000~2009) and the near-future climate state dataset (2041~2050) under the RCP4.5 scenario for CORDEX-EA were used to drive the model. The results show that the annual cycle of C_DMS in the Yellow Sea will change in the near future, with the months of very high C_DMS shifting from May and September to April and October in the North Yellow Sea, and from April and September to April and August in the South Yellow Sea. Additionally, the local high C_DMS areas will alter. The C_DMS high value area is strengthened in the following areas: near the Shandong Peninsula in spring; the shallow shore in northern Jiangsu Province; the east-central South Yellow Sea in summer; and the east of the South Yellow Sea in autumn. In the summer, however, the C_DMS high value area weakened near the Shandong Peninsula. The near future heat flux and wind stress have a strong influence on C_DMS in the Shandong Peninsula and the central-eastern part of the South Yellow Sea; precipitation and total cloud cover have a strong influence on C_DMS in the West Korea Bay; and C_DMS in the shallows of northern Jiangsu Province are affected by all climate factors.