气象环境要素对北京市消化系统疾病的影响

为探究气象环境条件对消化系统疾病的影响,结合分布滞后非线性模型与广义相加模型,分析了2009~2011年气象环境要素与北京市消化系统疾病急诊人数的暴露-反应关系.结果显示,气温对消化系统疾病的影响主要体现为“高温效应”,高于25℃的气温其危险度RR随气温升高而增加,且滞后效应能达到10d以上.较为极端的湿度(RH<10%或RH>90%)会显著增加消化系统疾病的发病,并有持久的作用,其与高温结合会形成“高温低湿”和“高温高湿”2种让人不适的情况.0～2m/s的风速在短的滞后期(5d)最能增加发病危险性.而3～4m/s的风速对疾病的危险性小,说明适度的风速不影响健康.浓度高于200μg/m³的PM₁₀和浓度高于70μg/m³的 NO₂具有即时的危险性(5d内显著);而较高浓度(>55μg/m³)的SO₂滞后一定时期后效应更加明显.

Impacts of meteorological factors and environmental pollutants on digestive diseases in Beijing

To explore meteorological and environmental impacts on human health, distributed lag non-linear model together with generalized additive model are applied to study exposure-response relationship between ambient air factors and digestive system diseases from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing. Results show that obvious influence of high temperature on digestive system diseases is revealed. Relative risk (RR) significantly increases with Ta raise when Ta>25 ℃. The lag effects can reach more than 10 days. Condition of extremely high or low humidity (RH<10% or RH>90%) can also lead to digestive diseases increase. The effect could last a long time. High temperature combined with extremely high or low humidity forms two uncomfortable circumstance, respectively ‘hot and dry’ and ‘hot and humidity’. Wind speed 0~2m/s can increase the risk of digestive diseases in a short period (5days). The risk of wind speed between 3~4m/s is small. It indicates moderate wind has weak effect on health. High PM₁₀ and NO₂ concentrations immediately play a significant role on digestive system diseases (less in 5days). But high SO₂ concentrations act significantly in a longer lag period.