随机模拟在常州运河水质规划中的应用

以常州运河的水质规划为实例,讨论了确定性水质模型的随机模拟。讨论中引进了主观概率和客观概率的概念,用泰勒级数确定客观概率分布,用可能最大机率法估计主观概率分布,并给出了在实施不同规划方案时的水质概率曲线和水质达标的保证率。计算结果表明,使水质恶化的各种随机因素的作用不容忽视,各种水污染治理措施只能降低水质超标的风险水平。

Application of Stochastic Modeling to Water Quality Planning in Grand Canal of Changzhou

A stochastic modeling process was set up to simula- te the water quality process for the Grand Canal of Changzhou. This paper introduced the concept of both subjective and objective probabilities, and identified probable distribution of random variables that affected water quality, and also generated water quality proba- bility curves and exceeding probability of meeting de- sign standard for water quality at the control section of the Grand Canal to different planning options.