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区域水环境污染预警系统的建立
引用本文:冉圣宏,陈吉宁,刘毅.区域水环境污染预警系统的建立[J].上海环境科学,2002,21(9):541-544.
作者姓名:冉圣宏  陈吉宁  刘毅
作者单位:清华大学环境科学与工程系,清华大学环境科学与工程系,清华大学环境科学与工程系 北京 100084,北京 100084,北京 100084
基金项目:973项目(科技部)子专题“区域水环境污染控制与修复原理”,编号G1999045711。
摘    要:深入分析水环境污染预警系统的目的,结构,实现以及各子系统的耦合,提出区域水环境污染预警系统应由区域内多个主要预警中心组成,每个预警中心包括通讯子系统,技术支持子系统,应急风险分析和决策支持子系统等。区域水环境污染预警系统的实现由实时处理和离线处理2个部分组成,前者包括现场流量,蒸发,降雨实时信息的收集,数据的传递和接收,预警模型计算和输出,决策管理,后者包括历史数据和区域特征输入,预警模式选择;参数率定等。目前建立预警系统面临的主要困难在于实时信息的获取和系统不确定性分析方法,相应地,对系统的持续改进也就是要加强信息交流,提高模型的识别能力,扩展系统的评价与决策功能等。

关 键 词:水环境污染  预警系统  区域水环境  系统耦合  不确定性分析

Establishment of an Early Warning System for Regional Water Environment
Ren Shenghong Chen Jiening Liu Yi.Establishment of an Early Warning System for Regional Water Environment[J].Shanghai Environmental Science,2002,21(9):541-544.
Authors:Ren Shenghong Chen Jiening Liu Yi
Abstract:Based on literature review the paper provided the early warning system for regional water environment, and then the system structure, system realization,-system operation, and subsystem coupling were analyzed. It was suggested that the early warning system for regional water environmental pollution control should consist of several main warning centers, with each center comprising communication subsystem, technique support subsystem, contingent risk analysis subsystem and decision support subsystem. When an early warning system was established, the most unmanageable difficulties will be met in the acquisition of real time information and how to utilize an uncertainty analysis method effectively. As a result, in order to improve the warning system, what must be done is to strengthen information communication, to enhance the system capability of identification, and to expand the system with system with assessment and decision-making function.
Keywords:Early warning system Regional water environment System coupling Uncertainly analysis
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