2006—2012年广东省机动车尾气排放特征及变化规律

利用广东省年鉴及实地调查资料,基于COPERT Ⅳ模型计算并分析了2006─2012年广东省珠三角和非珠三角地区的机动车尾气排放清单. 结果表明:研究地区2006─2012年机动车保有量上升,国Ⅲ、国Ⅳ车辆所占比例提高,其中珠三角地区优化程度大于非珠三角地区；2006─2012年2个地区污染物(CO、VOC、NO_x、PM_2.5)排放因子均有降低,降幅在24.54%~57.89%之间. 机动车污染物排放量上升趋势及贡献特征地区性差异明显,2006─2012年非珠三角地区CO、VOC排放量分别上升了37.20%、26.93%,增幅高于珠三角地区,而珠三角地区2012年的NO_x、PM_2.5排放量增幅(分别为21.65%、14.60%)高于非珠三角地区. 轻型客车是2个地区CO和VOC的主要贡献车型,贡献率均达46.96%以上,并且处于上升状态,但珠三角地区增幅小于非珠三角地区；重型客车和重型货车是2个地区NO_x、PM_2.5的主要来源,贡献率均在40.78%以上. 

Analysis of Vehicle Emission Characteristics and Variations in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2012

Based on data from the statistical yearbook of Guangdong Province and field surveys, vehicle emission inventories in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region and Non-Pearl River Delta (non-PRD) region were investigated and analyzed using the COPERT Ⅳ model. The results showed that, from 2006 to 2012, the vehicle amount increased, as did the number of vehicles meeting the China Ⅲ and China Ⅳ emission standards. The optimization in the PRD area was better than the non-PRD area. The main vehicle emission factors of all pollutants (CO, VOC, NO_x, and PM_2.5) in the two areas dropped during the period 2006-2012, with decreasing rates of 24.54%-57.89%. The increasing trends and contribution features of vehicle emissions showed obvious spatial variations. The CO and VOC emissions in the non-PRD area increased by 37.20% and 26.93% from 2006-2012, faster than those in the PRD region. However, as compared to the year 2006, the NO_x and PM_2.5 emissions in the PRD increased by 21.65% and 14.60% in 2012, faster than those in the non-PRD region. Light passenger vehicles contributed about one half of the CO and VOC emissions in the two regions. Emissions from these vehicles are still increasing, with the average annual growth rate in PRD lower than that in non-PRD. Heavy passenger vehicles and heavy trucks were the two major contributors to NO_x and PM_2.5 emissions, contributing more than 40.78%.