中国石化化工行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

石化化工行业是高耗能高排放行业之一，约占工业部门碳排放比例的10%，研究石化化工行业碳排放达峰路径不仅能推动工业部门尽早实现达峰，同时也为石化化工行业加快绿色低碳转型指明方向. 基于中国统计年鉴、行业协会、企业碳核查等多来源数据，在分析历史排放趋势的基础上，识别能源集中度高的重点行业和产品，采用情景分析法针对石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业三大子行业中的炼油、乙烯、丙烯、对二甲苯和合成氨等重点产品，预测其基准情景和控排情景下的重点产品产量和碳排放强度，以及石化化工行业2021—2035年二氧化碳排放趋势. 石化化工行业在基准情景下排放量无法实现2030年前达峰，控排情景下将于2030年达峰，峰值为17.3×108 t. 通过能源结构调整、节能和低碳技术改造、低碳循环及高效利用等途径可以实现行业减排，与BAU(仅考虑石化产品产量变化，不考虑产品结构、单位产品能耗变化)情景相比，减排贡献最大的路径是化石能源利用清洁化改造，2030年相对BAU减排1.19×108 t，贡献率约44%；其次是加大节能和低碳技术改造力度和资源循环及高效利用，减排量分别为0.8×108和0.6×108 t，减排贡献率分别达到29%和22%. 

Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak for China's Petrochemical and Chemical Industries

The petrochemical and chemical industries are one of the high energy-consuming and high-emission industries, accounting for about 10% carbon emissions of the industrial sector. The research on the carbon emission peak pathway in the petrochemical and chemical industries can not only promote the industrial sector to reach the peak as soon as possible, but also point out the direction for accelerating its green and low-carbon transformation. Based on the analysis of historical emission trends with multi-source data from the China Statistical Yearbook, industry associations and enterprise carbon verification, key industries and products with high energy consumption were identified. Focused on the key products of oil refining, ethylene, propylene, p-xylene and synthetic ammonia in the three major sub industries of oil and gas exploitation, petrochemical industry and chemical industry, scenario analysis method is used to predict the output of these key products and carbon emission intensity under the benchmark scenario and emission control scenario. The trend of carbon dioxide emission of petrochemical and chemical industry from 2021 to 2035 is predicted. The emissions of the petrochemical and chemical industries cannot reach the peak before 2030 under the benchmark scenario and will reach the peak in 2030 under the emission control scenario, with a peak value of 1.73 billion tons. The path of emission reduction can be achieved through energy structure adjustment, energy-saving and low-carbon technology transformation, low-carbon cycle and high-efficiency utilization. Compared with business-as-usual (BAU), which only considers the change of petrochemical product output and does not consider the change of product structure and energy consumption per unit product, the path with the largest contribution to emission reduction is clean transformation of fossil energy utilization. In 2030, the emission reduction compared with BAU will be 119 million tons, accounting for about 44% of the emission reduction. Strengthening energy saving and low-carbon technology transformation will reduce emissions by 80 million tons (29% of the total reduction), and resource recycling and efficient utilization will reduce emissions by 60 million tons (22% of the total reduction).