基于重点行业/领域的我国碳排放达峰路径研究

开展碳排放达峰路径研究，明确时间表、路线图、施工图，是支撑我国实现2030年前碳达峰目标的基础性研究工作. 本文采取自上而下和自下而上相结合的方式，以满足社会经济高质量稳定发展需求和国家碳达峰碳中和双重目标为约束开展自上而下的宏观路径研究；以合计贡献了我国碳排放(不含港澳台地区数据) 90%以上的电力、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、石化化工、煤化工共6个重点行业以及建筑、交通2个重点领域为对象，开展自下而上的重点行业/领域碳达峰路径研究；通过上下路径反复迭代、行业间耦合优化，打通宏观路径与微观措施的联动和双向反馈，最终形成基于重点行业/领域的我国碳达峰路径. 结果表明:为实现国家碳达峰、碳中和的目标愿景，需抓紧部署、大力推进包括清洁能源降碳、能效提升降碳、资源循环降碳、管理调控降碳等4类关键举措，方可实现我国碳排放量在2030年前达峰的目标，峰值较2020年增加5.0×108~7.0×108 t左右，达峰后将保持3~4年的峰值平台期. 受需求与技术驱动，不同领域碳排放总量将梯次实现达峰，其中工业领域（含钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、石化化工、煤化工共5个重点行业）预计将在“十四五”期间整体达峰，达峰后碳排放稳定下降；电力行业和交通、建筑领域碳排放均在2030年左右实现达峰. 经测算，2021—2030年间，为推动碳达峰采取的4类关键措施预计需投入2.08×1013元；其中清洁能源降碳是最为有效的措施，同时也是成本最高的措施. 为保障关键举措顺利落地，建议全面加大政策创新，逐步形成系统完善的碳总量控制与交易市场机制、绿色低碳标准体系、行业准入及产业结构政策体系、价格财税及投融资机制等. 本研究分行业及领域的碳达峰路径研究成果及所识别的关键控碳减碳技术手段、措施和政策将为国家碳达峰路径设计提供技术支撑. 

Pathway for Carbon Dioxide Peaking in China Based on Sectoral Analysis

Studying the pathway to peaking China's CO₂ emissions, taking the timetable, roadmap, and construction map as the expected outputs, is a basic research work to support the country to peak its carbon emissions peaking before 2030. In this study, we build a model that integrates top-down national pathway analysis with bottom-up sectoral analysis. The top-down analysis is constrained by the country's carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality goals and by the demands associated with the socio-economic development. The pathway to peaking CO₂ emissions in eight key sectors is analyzed individually with the interconnection between sectors considered. These eight sectors include the power sector, the iron and steel industry, the cement industry, the aluminum smelting industry, the petrochemical and chemical industry, the coal chemical industry, the residential sector, and the transportation sector, which together contribute >90% of the national CO₂ emissions (excluding the data of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). A national pathway is finally proposed by coupling the top-down national pathway analysis and the bottom-up sectoral analysis. Our results show that great efforts are necessary for achieving the carbon dioxide peaking target. By promoting clean energy, improving energy efficiency, increasing resource recycling, and optimizing management and regulation, China's CO₂ emissions could be expected to peak before 2030, at a value 5.0×108-7.0×108 t higher than the 2020 levels. The national CO₂ emissions are expected to fluctuate in the plateau period for 3-4 years after the peak. CO₂ emissions from different sectors are expected to reach their peaks in different years as driven by the varying demands and technology options in different sectors. The total CO₂ emissions from the industrial sector (including the iron and steel industry, the cement industry, the aluminum smelting industry, the petrochemical and chemical industry, and the coal chemical industry) are expected to peak during the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ period, and keep decreasing afterward. CO₂ emissions from the electricity, transportation, and building sectors are all expected to peak at around 2030. Specifically, by the emission peak year, the power sector and the transportation sector are the major driver that increase the national CO₂ emissions, with the direct emissions from these two sectors increased by 5.4×108 and 4.5×108 t, respectively. This increment would be partially offset by the emission reduction contributed by the iron and steel industry and the cement industry, with value of 3.1×108 and 1.0×108 t (direct emissions), respectively. The four types of measures proposed previously are estimated to cost approximately 2.08×1013 RMB from 2021 to 2030. Among these measures, promoting clean energy is the most effective one to reduce emissions, and it is also the most expensive measure. Policies are necessary for ensuring the successful implementation of the proposed control measures. Based on the analysis, we suggest establishing a comprehensive CO₂ cap-and-trade mechanism nationwide, establishing a green and low-carbon standard system, updating the industrial structure policy system, and implementing appropriate economic policies. The proposed national carbon peaking pathway, the identified key measures for each sector, and the proposed policies in this study could be expected to provide technical support for the design of China's carbon dioxide peaking pathways.