生态红线保护下的两江新区土地利用/覆盖情景模拟及生态价值评估

生态保护红线的划定对于维护国家和区域生态安全具有非常重要的作用，是我国在生态环境保护方面的重要举措.为分析生态保护红线划定后区域生态系统服务价值的变化情况，以重庆市两江新区为例，采用CLUE-S模型对未来的土地利用变化情况进行情景模拟，并在此基础上对各地类价值系数进行优化调整构建生态系统服务价值评估优化模型，对不同情景下的生态系统服务价值进行定量计算，分析生态系统服务价值的敏感度及变化度.结果表明:①采用CLUE-S模型对两江新区的未来土地利用进行空间模拟效果较好（Kappa系数达到0.82以上），模型的普适性较好.②生态价值敏感度结果表明两江新区的生态系统服务价值对价值系数的变化缺乏弹性，结果的可信度高.③2020年生态保护情景下，林地的面积增加量大于自然增长情景，城镇和工矿用地则相反，生态保护红线对于城镇扩张起到了一定的约束作用.④2014年现状、2020年自然增长情景和2020年生态保护情景下的生态系统服务价值分别约为10.53×108、10.50×108和10.88×108元，两种未来情景下耕地的生态系统服务价值减少最为明显，林地、水域服务价值均表现出增加的趋势.⑤林地和水域的生态价值变化度表明其面积变化对生态系统服务价值的影响较大.研究显示，CLUE-S模型进行小区域的土地利用变化情景模拟效果较好，构建的生态系统服务价值评估优化模型计算结果的可信度较高.政府相关部门可以根据生态保护红线及生态系统服务价值评估结果，进一步优化生活、生产和生态空间，使其在城市规划、绩效考核和生态补偿中得到实际运用，在区域的经济可持续发展中起到支撑作用. 

Land Use/Cover Scenario Simulation and Ecological Value Assessment based on the Ecological Protection Red Line:Liangjiang New Area Case Study

Ecological protection based on the red line delineated for the maintenance of national and regional ecological security plays an important role and is an important measure of ecological environmental protection in China. In order to analyze the regional ecosystem service value after the delineation of the ecological protection red line, the CLUE-S model was used to simulate the situation of land use change in the future, and the ecosystem service value of different scenarios was calculated quantitatively using the optimization model of ecosystem service value assessment. The sensitivity and rate of change of the ecosystem service value were analyzed. The results showed that:(1) The use of the CLUE-S model to simulate the future land use of the Liangjiang New Area had a good effect, and the kappa coefficient reached more than 0.82. The general applicability of the model was better. (2) The ecological value of sensitivity was less than one, indicating that the ecosystem service value of Liangjiang New Area was lacking elasticity in the change of value coefficient. (3) In 2020, the area of forest land was increased more than the natural growth scenario, while the urban and industrial land use showed the opposite results. (4) The ecosystem service value was about 1053 million RMB in 2014, and the values in the natural growth scenario and ecological protection scenario were about 1050 million and 1088 million RMB respectively in 2020. The value of ecosystem services of cultivated land decreased most obviously under the two scenarios. The forest land and water area showed an increasing trend, while the negative values of the urban, industrial and mining areas were greater. (5) The change of the ecological value of forest land and water area was more than one, indicating that the change of the area of forest land and water area has a great influence on ecosystem service value. Reasonable adjustment of the area around the area ratio and increase of the protection of ecological space were conducive to enhancing the value of ecosystem services. In conclusion, the CLUE-S model of land use change scenarios for small area simulation was better, and the evaluation results of ecosystem service value optimization model showed high reliability. The research ideas and methods could be popularized in other regions. The analysis results showed that the delineation of the ecological protection red line for ecological environment quality improvement of Liangjiang New Area and regional ecological security has a very good effect. The same ecosystem service value assessment could be effectively carried out for evaluation in different regions in different periods. The relevant government departments could be evaluated according to the results of ecological protection of the red line and the value of ecosystem services, and further optimize the life, production and ecological space. The results could be applied in city planning, performance assessment and ecological compensation, and play a supporting role in the sustainable development of regional economies.