基于生态保护成本的三江源区生态补偿资金估算

为了量化生态保护成本作为生态补偿的理论最低标准，以三江源区为例，将生态保护成本作为生态补偿标准下限，从实际需求角度分析基于生态保护成本的生态补偿标准核算范围与指标体系，结合相关政策和调研资料，采用费用分析法对生态保护成本进行动态核算，以2010年为基准年，确定与量化2011—2030年三江源区16县1乡的生态补偿标准.结果表明:① 2011—2030年三江源区生态补偿标准下限为4 095.4×108元，其中，2010年为177.7×108元，2011—2020年为2 069.5×108元，2021—2030年为2 025.9×108元.② 按补偿资金的不同投入类别，生态保护与建设投入的补偿下限为1 728.6×108元，居民生产生活改善投入的补偿下限为1 250.4×108元，基本公共服务能力投入的补偿下限为1 116.4×108元.③ 2011—2030年，三江源区土地生态保护投入由12元/（hm2·a）增至180元/（hm2·a），农牧民生产生活改善的投入由4 500元/人增至8 000元/人.生态补偿资金的差异主要源于草地退化严重程度、人口分布相对集中程度等方面，这将有助于缓解三江源区“人-草-畜”这一核心矛盾，同时有助于推进三江源区生态补偿机制的建立. 

Estimating Ecological Compensation Payments in the Three-River Headwaters Region based on Environmental Protection Cost

The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) of China was chosen as an example to quantify the minimum standards of ecological compensation according to ecological protection cost theory. Given that ecological protection cost is considered to be the lowest ecological compensation standard, the accounting scope and index system of ecological compensation standard were analyzed from the point of view of the actual demand. Using 2010 as the base year, the ecological compensation standard during 2011-2030 of 16 counties and one town were quantified by using the cost analysis combined with the related policy and investigation data. The results showed that the lowest ecological compensation standard during 2011-2030 in TRHR was 409.54 billion RMB, including 17.77 billion RMB in 2010, 206.95 billion RMB during 2011-2020 and 202.59 billion RMB during 2021-2030. According to the different compensation categories, the lowest standard of ecological protection and construction was 172.86 billion RMB, residents' production and living improvement was 125.04 billion RMB and basic public service ability was 111.64 billion RMB. Up to 2030, payments of ecological protection for TRHR will increase from 12 RMB to 180 RMB per hm2 every year, and per capita payment for life improvement of herdsmen will increase from 4500 RMB to 8000 RMB. The variance of ecological compensation payments were ascribed to grassland degradation and population distribution. The findings can contribute to relieving core conflict among population, grassland, and livestock and establishing a scientific compensation system for TRHR.