中国作物秸秆资源利用潜力的多适宜性综合评价

由于作物秸秆类型不同，其营养成分和利用价值也不同，因此仅根据草谷比系数法以质量形态衡量其利用价值，难以全面直接地反映秸秆资源的多种利用价值.为综合定量评价不同利用方式下我国作物秸秆资源的各种利用价值，依据能量流动定律，构建作物秸秆多适宜性综合统一评价体系.结果表明:①以质量、能量和谷物当量3种形态综合核算我国秸秆资源量，其计量结果年际变化趋势较为一致，并且能量和谷物当量形态更能直接体现秸秆资源能源化和饲料化的实际利用价值；②1991-2015年我国作物秸秆资源利用价值总量整体上升，至2015年我国作物秸秆肥料化、基料化和原料化形态质量为6.88×1011 kg，能源化利用价值为8.89×1018 J，适宜饲料化的作物秸秆资源利用量为6.26×1011 kg谷物当量，折合当年全国粮食总产量的100.66%，因此秸秆饲料化具有较高的利用价值，并且符合当前我国"粮改饲"农业改革发展方向；③我国各地秸秆资源量在空间上呈现出显著的地域边缘属性，秸秆资源丰富地区主要集聚在华北、东北和长江中下游地区.研究显示，就作物秸秆主要利用方式而言，饲料化具有相对较高的适宜性和利用价值，但是由于经济收益、经营规模和市场供需不对称等原因，当前农户秸秆饲料化的意愿不高，可利用经济和政策等措施引导该产业有序开展. 

Multi-Suitability Comprehensive Evaluation of Crop Straw Resource Utilization in China

Crop straw has different nutritional components and utilization value due to its different types. The current researches only evaluate crop straw resource comprehensive utilization in weight by the method of straw to gain ratio, however, this method is difficult to directly reflect the multiple utilization values of straw resource. Thus we built a unified quantitative estimation system based on weight, energy and cereal equivalent three forms cereal equivalent to estimate the multi-suitability utilization values of crop straw resource in China, and the main results were as follows. The inter-annual variation trend of crop straw resource accounting results in weight, energy and cereal equivalent forms were consistent, and its energy and cereal equivalent forms could directly reflect the straw actual utilization values as energy and feed, which stated that its calculation process and calculation results were scientific and effective. The total amounts of crop straw resource multiple utilization values generally increased from 1991 to 2015, the total amount of crop straw resource were 6.88×1011 kg and 8.89×1018 J in weight and energy forms, and suitable feeding crop straw resource was equal to 6.26×1011 kg in cereal equivalent form in 2015, which was 100.66% of the total grain production. Comparatively speaking, straw feed had more high utilization value, which was in keeping with the current 'grain to feed' agricultural reform and development direction in China. At the same time, the energy potentiality values of crop straw in provinces and cities in China had the distinct characteristics of marginal attribute in spatial distribution by quantitative analysis with the method of spatial auto-correlation analysis, and its straw resource-rich areas were mainly concentrated in China north, northeast, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region. As a whole, the potential utilization of straw resources in eastern and northern regions is higher than the western and southern regions. The study shows that the feed use has a relatively high suitability and utilization value for the main use of crop straw. However, due to its economic benefit, operation scale and market supply and demand asymmetry et al, the willingness of farmers' straw feed is not high at present, the economic and policy measures could be used to guide its industry orderly development.