煤炭消费与大气污染影响下的燃煤火电分区发展策略

我国区域性复合型大气污染日益严重,以燃煤火电为代表的煤炭消费相关产业已经成为最为重要的大气污染源,并已成为制约燃煤火电行业发展的重要因素. 应用RAMS(区域大气模式系统)-CMAQ(多尺度空气质量模式系统)模拟和评估全国燃煤火电对区域大气环境的影响,并分析了近地面风场对燃煤火电布局的影响；基于煤炭消费总量增长趋势与控制目标,预测燃煤火电的发展规模,提出全国燃煤火电分区布局策略. 结果表明:燃煤电厂对我国东部地区NO_x、SO₂、PM_2.5以及PM₁₀排放通量的贡献较大,但燃煤电厂对ρ(SO₂)、ρ(O₃)、ρ(PM_2.5)和ρ(PM₁₀)年均值的贡献率较小,基本维持在10%以下,仅对ρ(NO_x)年均值贡献达到了10%～20%；考虑到盛行风向对污染物传输的影响,需谨慎在京津冀西北方向、长三角周边以及珠三角以北方向的较近区域新建燃煤电厂或大型燃煤火电基地；按照既定的煤炭消费总量控制目标(42×108 t)估算,2020年新增燃煤电厂容量可以满足电力消费需求增量的70%,“十三五”期间仍需要进一步开发其他替代能源,煤炭消费总量控制对煤电发展的影响逐渐减弱；中东部地区可增加燃煤火电装机容量较小,华北平原、长三角、珠三角和四川盆地等地区应禁止新建煤电机组,新疆维吾尔自治区、内蒙古自治区西部、宁夏回族自治区、陕西省北部等西部地区将是未来燃煤火电发展空间最大的区域. 

Regional Strategies for Developing Coal-Fired Plants Based on Influences from Coal Consumption and Air Pollution Control

Abstract: Regional compound air pollution is very serious in China, and coal-fired plants have become the most important source of air pollution. Air pollution has become an important factor restricting the development of coal-fired plants. RAMS-CMAQ model was used to assess the impact of coal-fired plants on regional atmospheric conditions and analyze the impact of the near-surface wind field on the distribution of pollutants from coal-fired plants. The developmental scale of coal-fired plants based on trends in coal consumption and control targets was predicted. Layout strategies for partitioning coal-fired plants were proposed. The simulation results show that coal-fired plants contribute significantly to the mass burden of NO_x, SO₂, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀. However, the annual average contribution of power plants to these pollutants generally remains below 10%, with the exception of NO_x, for which coal-fired plants contribution can reach 10%-20%. Under the influence of prevailing winds on pollutant transport, caution is required when building new coal-fired plants base close to the northwest of the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and the north of the Pearl River Delta. According to the established total coal consumption control targets during the 13^th Five-Year Plan period, new coal-fired plants could meet an estimated 70% of the demand for electricity in 2020, alternative energy sources should be further developed, and the influence of total coal consumption control on the development of coal-fired plants will gradually weaken. Regions in western China, including Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and northern Shaanxi, are prime areas for development of new coal-fired plants in the future.