中国省际SO2排放的环境学习曲线及减排潜力

基于2005年SO₂排放量，对人均SO₂排放量和万元产值SO₂排放量的区域分布格局及其成因进行了定量分析；同时，基于1992—2005年SO₂排放量和经济发展数据，建立了28个省区万元产值SO₂排放量随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线；并以所建立的环境学习曲线为依据，分析了1992，1995，2000和2005年4个时段的环境负荷变化及SO₂的减排潜力.结果表明:经济发展水平越高的地区，万元产值SO₂排放的负荷越小，万元产值SO₂减排的潜力越小；反之，经济发展水平越低的地区，万元产值SO₂排放的负荷越大，万元产值SO₂减排的潜力越大. 

Environment Learning Curve and Emission Reducing Potential of SO2 Emission in China

Based on SO₂ emissions data of 2005, the area distribution patterns of two indexes (SO₂ emission per capita and SO₂ emissions per unit production value) as well as their reasons were quantitatively analyzed. Then, on the basis of SO₂ emissions and economic development data from 1992 to 2005, environment learning curve of SO₂ emission per ten thousand Yuan production value and GDP per capita were built in 28 provinces, and thechange of SO₂ emission following environment protecting consciousness enhancing and reducing emission technology advancing were discovered. According to the environment learning curve of SO₂ emission, change of environment burden in four periods (1992, 1995, 2000 and 2005) and emission reducing potential of SO₂ in this phase were analyzed. The results show that in some provinces where the level of economic development is higher, environment burthen of SO₂ emission is lower and emission reducing potential of SO₂ is smaller; conversely, in other provinces where the level of economic is lower, environment burthen of SO₂ emission is higher and emission reducing potential of SO₂ is bigger.