基于结构分解法的长江经济带产业排水量驱动因素评估

为分析长江经济带产业排水量变化的驱动因素，以2002年、2007年和2012年长江经济带11省市投入产出表、排水估计量为基础，利用基于投入产出的结构分解法对各省市数据进行比较静态分析，对驱动产业排水量变化的因素进行分解及定量评估，包括节水减排效应、投入结构效应、需求结构效应及规模效应.结果表明:①长江经济带产业排水量由增长趋势变为下降趋势，2002—2007年排水量增长了16.9%，2007—2012年排水量降低了0.4%，2002年、2007年、2012年产业平均耗水率为46%，上海市、江苏省等省市产业排水量下降趋势明显.②规模效应是驱动各省市产业排水增加的主要因素，其在2002—2007年、2007—2012年带动排水量分别增长了67%和61%；规模效应影响逐渐分化，上海市、江苏省、浙江省规模效应带动产业排水量增幅逐渐减弱.③节水减排效应是驱动排水量减少的最主要因素，其在2002—2007年、2007—2012年带动排水量分别减少了35%和60%，节水减排效应影响逐渐增强，各省市排水强度明显降低.④长江经济带大部分省市的需求结构效应驱动产业排水量不断减少，其驱动力的绝对值呈增长趋势；投入结构效应对产业排水量的驱动力较弱且变化规律性不明显.建议长江经济带通过技术进步、应用创新等提高清洁生产能力，通过需求及投入结构优化带动产业结构调整，对进一步降低产业排水量具有一定价值. 

Evaluation of Driving Factors for Industrial Water Discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis

Industrial wastewater has a serious impact on the environment. In order to analyze the drivers of industrial water drainage changes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the driving factors were evaluated using the structural decomposition analysis method, which is based on the input-output tables and wastewater discharge data of 11 provinces and cities in 2002, 2007, and 2012. The effects of water-saving and emission reduction, input structure, demand structure, and scale were considered. The results indicated that: (1) The wastewater discharge of the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows an increasing trend, with an increase of 16.9% from 2002 to 2007, a decrease of 0.4% from 2007 to 2012, and a water consumption average rate of 46%. The wastewater discharge from Shanghai and Jiangsu Province presents a decreasing trend. (2) The scale effect is the main factor leading to the increase in water drainage and an increase of 67% (2002-2007) and 61% (2007-2012). The scale effect gradually differentiates. The scale effect on drainage growth in Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, and Zhejiang Province is gradually reduced. (3) The effects of water-saving and emission reduction are the most important factors to reduce water drainage by 35% from 2002 to 2007 and 60% from 2007 to 2012. The effect of water saving and emission reduction is gradually increasing, indicating that the drainage intensity is decreasing. (4) The demand structure effect reduces water drainage in most areas and its influence shows an increasing trend. The input structural effect is a relatively minor factor and its development regularity is not obvious. To further decrease drainage, the industrial structure of the Yangtze River Economic Belt needs further adjustment through demand and input structure optimization; the clean production capacity needs improvement with technological progress and application innovation.