基于选择试验法的受威胁物种保护偏好及价值评估

科学评价生物多样性价值可为生物多样性和生态系统经济学（the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity，TEEB）支持下的生物资源管理提供有效的技术方法和政策依据，对受威胁物种的保护尤为重要.从TEEB的理念和研究目标出发，以我国特有保护植物——翅果油树（Elaeagnus mollis）为例，采用选择试验法定量评估受访者对受威胁物种保护和开发的偏好以及支付意愿；针对种植面积、产品开发、树苗品种、保护投入和农户收益这5项物种属性，在多模型比较的基础上最终选择随机参数模型（RPL）和潜在分层模型（LCM）进行价值评估.结果表明:基于RPL模型得出受访者的偏好选择具有异质性，正选择偏好的属性变量按重要性表现为“保护增加投入” > “高低端产品同时开发” > “农户收益” > “树苗品种” > “种植面积”，其中对“保护增加投入”的支付意愿〔331.0元/（户·a）〕最高，其次为“高低端产品同时开发”〔242.71元/（户·a）〕；对“保护不投入”为负选择偏好，且支付意愿〔-154.71元/（户·a）〕最低.基于LCM模型可将受访者分为保护偏好型和发展偏好型2个潜在类别，前者所占样本比例远高于后者，他们更愿意在物种保护方面支付较多的费用，而后者更愿意在产品开发上支付较多的费用.补偿剩余分析得到，翅果油树保护和开发的最大价值为285.62元/（户·a）.研究显示，选择试验法在受威胁物种保护及价值评估中具有良好的适用性，评估结果可为物种保护政策的制定提供科学依据. 

Conservation Preference and Value Evaluation of Endangered Species Based on Choice Experiment Methods

The scientific evaluation of biodiversity value can provide an effective technical method and policy basis for the management of biological resources supported by the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB), especially for the protection of endangered species. Based on the concept and research objectives of TEEB, this paper attempts to evaluate quantitatively the preference and willingness to pay for the conservation and development of endangered species by the choice experiment methods, taking the endemic protected plant Elaeagnus mollis as example. Focusing on the five species attributes of planting areas, product development, sapling species, protection investment and farmer earnings, the random parameter logit model (RPL) and latent class model (LCM) were selected for value evaluation based on the comparison of multiple models. The results of the RPL model show that the preference choices of respondents are heterogeneous, and attribute variables of possible preference are sequentially ranked in order:'increasing protection investment' > 'simultaneous development of high and low-end products' > 'farmers earnings' > 'sapling species' > 'planting areas', within the highest willingness to pay for 'increasing protection investment' 331.00 RMB/(household·a), followed by 'simultaneous development of high and low-end products' 242.71 RMB/(household·a). In contrast, respondents have a negative preference for 'no protection investment' and the lowest willingness to pay -154.71 RMB/(household·a). The results of the LCM model show that respondents can be divided into two potential categories:protection preference and development preference. The former of higher proportion of samples is more willing to pay for species conservation than the latter, while the latter is more willing to pay for product development. Finally, the highest value of conservation and development for Elaeagnus mollis is 285.62 RMB/(household·a) by calculating compensating surplus. The research indicates that the choice experiment methods have good applicability in the conservation and value evaluation of endangered species, and can provide scientific basis for the formulation of species conservation policies.