深圳经济特区环境系统动态模型的研究

针对深圳经济特区环境问题的特殊性,在近中期本区环境规划的着眼点,不仅是局限于对废水、废气、废渣和噪声污染的治理,而且着眼于解决过去和防范未来在环境发展中的现实性和潜在性环境问题。我们选用了以系统动力学原理为基础的动态研究方法。把深切特区的环境问题构造成一个有自然条件、资源消耗、经济发展、生态平衡和环境污染等因素参与的复杂大系统进行研究。本文由五部分组成: 1.问题和思路 2.建模原理和方法 3.模型的结构 4.模型的功能和应用 5.结论 通过年项研究,阐明了深圳经济恃区的环境现状,建立了深圳经济特区环境系统动态模型、应用模型分别进行了灵敏度分析、策略分析和预测分析,动态地回答了人们对深圳经济特区感兴趣的一系列问题:如,经济发展、资源消耗、人口增长、生态平衡和环境污染等方面的问题。从而,为新兴城市建设和经济开发区获得最大的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益的途径和方法,对于协调深圳经济特区的经济开发与环境保护之间的关系提供了重要手段,同时,为深圳经济特区进行现代化的环境管理创造了条件。

Study on the Dynamic Model of the Environmental system in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone

Directing our attentino to the special environmental problems encountered in the Shenzhen special economic zone, we must focus on the environmental programme on the short and midium-termbascs. In other words, efferts should be devoted not only to handling pollutions caused by waste water, gases, slugs and noise, but also to solving environmental problems both in the past and in the future. Dynamic research methods based on the principle of system dynamics have been adopted in this study. All the environmental problems in the Shenzhen special economic zone are regarded as a complex system which many factors, such as natural conditions, economics, and ecosystem and environmental pollution involved. This paer has 5 parts,1, problems and thinking;2, principles and methods of establishing the model;3, structure of the model;4, function and application of the model;5, conclusions.This study permits us to establish the dynamic model of the environmental systems in the Shenzhen special economic zone. This model can be used to assess the environmental state in this zone and carry out sensitivity, tactcs and predition analysis. It has dynamically answered a lot of questions concerning economics, resources, ecosystems and pollutions. It provides the largest economic, social and environmental benefits for newly developed cities and economic zones. It also provides important methods for coodinating the relationship between economic development and environmental protection in this zone, thus creating the best conditions for carrying out modern scientific environmental management in the Shenzhen special economic zone.