成渝经济区火电发展的大气环境影响

基于CALPUFF模型,以2007年为基准年,根据成渝经济区基准年火电SO₂排放量、2008—2009年国家核定的火电SO₂减排量(20.9×104 t)、“十二五”年地方计划火电SO₂减排量(18.5×104 t)以及地方愿景下的“十二五”期间新增火电SO₂排放量,设计3种不同排放情景,并且对不同情景下的ρ(SO₂)分布特征进行了模拟. 结果表明:2008年和2009年成渝经济区的火电SO₂减排使成渝经济区的ρ(SO₂)年均值比2007年平均降低了18.9%；“十二五”新增火电装机将会使成渝经济区的ρ(SO₂)年均值比2007年平均升高20.7%. 虽然通过工程减排及“上大压小”的方式减缓了新增火电机组带来的影响,但从空间分布来看,ρ(SO₂)增加的局部地区与酸雨严重的地区高度重合,导致该区域酸雨污染风险依然存在. 

Effects of Coal-Fired Thermal Power Industry Development on the Atmospheric Environment in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone

Using 2007 as the base year, the SO₂ concentration characteristics under different scenarios were simulated using the CALPUFF Model. Emissions modeled were SO₂ emissions of coal-fired power plants in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic zone in 2007, national planned SO₂ emission reductions (20.9×10⁴ t) from power plants from 2008-2009, local plans for SO₂ emission reductions (18.5×10⁴ t) from power plants during the 12^th Five-Year Plan, and SO₂ emission additions from newly-established power plants during the 12^th Five-Year Plan. The results show that the reduction of SO₂ emissions from power plants during 2008-2009 caused a remarkable decrease (18.9%) in the ambient SO₂ level in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic zone. However, new coal-fired power plants in the period of 2011-2015 will lead to a 20.7% increase in the annual average concentration of SO₂. Although the impacts of newly-established coal-fired power plants can be reduced through emission reduction projects and structural adjustment, the risk of regional acid rain pollution will still exist. From the viewpoint of the spatial distribution of SO₂ concentration, some of the areas with SO₂ emissions increases are also the areas with serious acid rain.