太湖流域工业园区水风险评估体系的建立与实例研究

太湖流域是我国经济最发达地区之一，但其流域水环境污染较为严重，而正确评价工业园区水风险可以有效帮助园区实现水风险管理.在WWF（世界自然基金会）和DEG（德国投资与开发有限公司）开发的全球水风险评估体系的基础上，根据太湖流域的水环境状况、工业园区的管理模式及相关标准法规，确定了太湖流域工业园区水风险评估指标，包括9项物理风险指标、6项监管风险指标和9项声誉风险指标.指标权重的确定采用层次分析法，指标的分级采用5级5分制，风险综合评分值计算采用综合指数加权求和法，建立了太湖流域工业园区水风险评估体系.结果显示，准则层物理风险、监管风险和声誉风险的权重分别为0.443 4、0.169 2和0.387 4，其中，“万元工业增加值新鲜水耗”（权重为0.214 0）、“工业园区废水排放达标率”（权重为0.270 7）和“媒体对工业园区企业的负面报道”（权重为0.251 6）指标分别在物理风险、监管风险和声誉风险中所占权重最大.在太湖流域选取了一个纺织工业园区进行实例分析，评估结果表明，2015年该工业园区物理风险值为3.622 5，监管风险值为2.980 8，声誉风险值为3.203 4，综合水风险值3.351 5，风险等级为Ⅳ级，属高风险，原因与该园区万元工业增加值新鲜水耗高、附近河流水质较差、公众满意度低和废水排放达标率相对不高有关. 

Establishment of Industrial Park Water Risk Assessment System in Taihu Lake Basin and a Case Study

The Taihu Lake Basin is one of the most developed regions in China, the basin water environment was seriously polluted. Water risk assessment in the industrial parks can effectively help the parks to achieve water risk management. Based on the global water risk assessment system developed by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the German Investment and Development Corporation (DEG), according to the investigation of water environment situation in the Taihu Lake Basin, management mode of industrial parks, and relevant standards and statutes, the industrial park water risk assessment indexes in the Taihu Lake Basin were determined, which included 9 indexes of physical risk, 6 indexes of regulatory risk and 9 indexes of reputational risk. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was employed to calculate the weights of the indexes, the indexes were graded by the five-grade and five-score scales, the comprehensive assessment values were calculated by the weighted comprehensive index summation process, and industrial park water risk assessment system in the Taihu Lake Basin was established. The results showed that the weight of the criterion layer physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk was 0.443, 4, 0.169, 2 and 0.387, 4 respectively. The indexes 'fresh water consumption of 10, 000 RMB industrial added value' (0.214, 0), 'standard-reaching rate of wastewater discharge in industrial park' (0.270, 7) and 'media reports for the industrial parks and enterprises' (0.251, 6) accounted for the largest weight in the three risks, respectively. A case study was conducted at a textile industrial park in the Taihu Lake Basin. The results showed that the assessment value of physical risk was 3.622, 5, the reputational risk was 2.980, 8, the regulatory risk was 3.203, 4 and the comprehensive water assessment value was 3.351, 5, the risk grade conformed to grade Ⅳ or a high risk. The main reasons for the poor water quality were the high fresh water consumption of 10, 000 Chinese Yuan industrial added-value, the poor water quality of the rivers near the industrial park, the low public satisfaction and the relatively low standard-reaching rate of wastewater discharge.