1992—2008年我国工业废水排放变化效应

工业废水排放使我国水环境受到严重威胁,为剖析工业废水排放变化驱动机制,应用LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数)法将其分解为规模、结构和技术3种效应.结果表明:1992-2008年我国工业废水排放整体上呈先降后升的二次抛物线趋势.其中,1992-2002年工业废水减排498 583×104t,由工业规模效应、结构效应和技术效应产生的贡献值分别为1 829988×104、206807 ×104和-2 535 378×104 t;2002-2008年工业废水排放增加了333 826×104t,相应地,3种效应的贡献值分别为1 470 045 ×104、-66 094×104、-1 070 126×104 t.规模效应是造成工业废水排放增加的主要原因,技术效应是工业废水排放减少的关键因素,结构效应多表现为绝对值较小的负值,表明工业经济结构调整倾向于减小污染但贡献不大.规模效应的主要影响行业是化工原料及化学制品制造业,造纸及纸制品业和食品、烟草及饮料制造业,为减少这些部门的废水排放,可通过政策减缓经济规模的扩张趋势；结构效应的主要影响行业是电气、煤气及水的生产供应业,黑色金属冶炼及延压业和非金属矿物制造业,可通过鼓励重组促使产业结构升级,达到减排工业废水的目标；技术效应的主要影响行业是皮革、毛皮、羽绒及其制品业,为实现工业废水减排,应加大技术投入、提高生产水平.

Decomposition Analysis on China's Industrial Wastewater Discharges in 1992-2008

Industrial wastewater discharges is a serious problem on the water environmental management in China. In order to explore the dynamic changes of industrial wastewater discharges in 1992-2008, three effects including scale (i.e., expansion of production scale), structure (i.e., adjustment of industrial structure), and technology (i.e., improvement of production process) on the discharges were decomposed using the methods of logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition. Industrial wastewater discharges were presented by an opening up quadratic parabola during the study period. In 1992-2002, the industrial wastewater discharges decreased by 498,583×10^4t, and the scale, structure, and technology effect were responsible to 1,829,988×10⁴,6,807×10^4and -2,5,378×10^4t, respectively; in 2002-2008, the discharges increased by 333,6×10^4t, and the scale, structure, and technology effect contributed with 1,470,045×10⁴,-66,094×10^4and -1,070,126×10^4t, respectively. The expansion of production scale was the major contributor to the increase of wastewater discharges, the improvement of production process played the most important role on the decrease of discharges, and the adjustment of industrial structure was a relatively minor factor in reducing discharges. The main contributors to the scale effect of industrial wastewater discharges were manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products, manufacture of paper and paper products and manufacture of foods, baverages and tobacco. One potential option to reduce wastewaterv discharges would be policies that slow down the expansion of these sectors economic scale. The main contribututors to the structure effect were production and distribution of electric power, hear power, gas and water, mining and processing of ferrous metal ores and mining and processing of non-ferrous metal ores, and policies should be encouraged to restructure these subsectors for fewer wastewater discharge. And the main contributor to the technological effect were manufacture of leather, fur, feather and related products, which should be the top priorities for policy makers to reduce wastewater discharges by enlarging technology investment and improving production level.