上海市碳排放强度的影响因素解析

采用对数均值迪氏分解（LMDI）法对1995—2008年上海市碳排放强度进行分解分析. 结果表明，产业部门能源强度的下降是上海市碳排放强度下降的主要原因，贡献率为67.6%. 进一步分析显示，上海市能源强度的下降主要来源于第二产业，但由于传统的工业节能改造的潜力有限，近年来工业能源强度下降的速度逐渐放缓，其对碳强度减排的贡献趋于减少. 能源结构和产业结构的调整是碳排放强度下降的次要原因，贡献率分别为18.2%和14.2%. 但是能源结构和产业结构仍然存在较大的调整空间，这2个因素有望对碳排放强度的下降作出持久的贡献. 

Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emission Intensity in Shanghai City

This paper presents carbon emission intensity analysis in Shanghai from 1995 to 2008 based on a complete decomposition approach – the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI) method.The results show that the decrease of energy intensity in industry accounted for 67.6% of the total carbon emission intensity reduction.Further analysis shows that the decrease of energy intensity in Shanghai mostly resulted from secondary industry.However,in recent years,as energy efficiency improvement in the industrial sector has gradually approached its maximum potential and subsequently slowed,the contribution of this factor has become less prominent.The factors of energy restructuring and industry restructuring accounted for 18.2% and 14.2% respectively of the total carbon emission intensity reduction.Because there is still large potential for energy and industry restructuring,these two factors may make further contributions to the future reduction of carbon emission intensity.