安徽省近10年能源足迹测度及驱动因子分析

安徽省为生态建设省,随着中部崛起战略与皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区建设的实施,能源消费给当地生态环境形成了较大压力.依据生态足迹模型对安徽省2000—2009年能源足迹进行了时间序列测度,基于STIRPAT模型揭示了能源足迹驱动因子的边际贡献,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了2015年与2020年能源足迹.结果表明:安徽省人均能源足迹由2000年的0.500 8 hm2增至2009年的1.043 5 hm2,人均能源足迹赤字由2000年的0.432 9 hm2扩至2009年的0.975 5 hm2;煤炭足迹对能源足迹平均贡献率为76.29%,占主导地位;能源足迹强度由2000年的1.083 3 hm2/104元降至2009年的0.704 7 hm2/104元;研究时段内,能源足迹生态压力指数均大于5.人均GDP和第二产业在经济中所比例均与能源足迹呈正相关,二者边际弹性系数分别为0.000 073 57和0.006;而单位工业增加值能耗与能源足迹呈负相关,其边际弹性系数为-0.186.

Analysis and Measurement of Factors Driving Energy Ecological Footprints in Anhui Province over the Last Decade

With the emergence of central China and development of Wanjiang City,increasing energy consumption has imposed a great burden on the ecological environment in Anhui Province.The energy ecological footprints(EEF) from 2000 to 2009 were analyzed based on the ecological footprint method,and the contribution margin of driving factors was revealed by the STIRPAT model.The EEFs in years 2015 and 2020 were forecasted by the GM model.The results show that EEF per capita increased from 0.500,8 hm2 in 2000 to 1.043,5 hm2 in 2009,and the EEF deficit per capita expanded from 0.432,9 hm2 in 2000 to 0.975,5 hm2 in 2009.Among the components of EEF,the average contribution of coal footprint,which was up to 76.29% of the EEF,was dominant.EPIEF decreased from 1.083,3 hm2 per ten thousand in 2000 to 0.704,7 hm2 per ten thousand in 2009.All the ecological pressure intensity of energy footprint(EPIEF) indexes were greater than five during the study period.The EEF was positively correlated with GDP per capita and secondary industry proportion,with elasticity coefficients of 0.000,073,57 and 0.006,respectively.The EEF was negatively correlated with the industrial added value of unit energy consumption,wherein the elasticity coefficient was approximately-0.186.