天津市工业能源消费碳排放量核算及影响因素分解

天津市工业经济的快速发展促使其能源消费量持续增加,已经成为该市能源消费的主体.建立能源消费的碳排放核算方法,对天津市工业能源消费碳排放量的时间序列进行分析.结果表明:在过去10 a内天津市工业能源消费的碳排放量年均增长10.41%,比工业增加值平均增速低58.53%;工业能源强度持续下降,万元(104元)增加值碳排放强度整体呈下降趋势,由1999年的2.38 t/万元降至2009年的0.68 t/万元,表明工业节能减排效果较明显;在工业终端能源消费结构中,煤炭占57.80%,高于北京、上海等地.采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)对工业经济规模、行业结构、能源效率和能源结构等因素进行分析.结果表明:工业经济规模是碳排放持续增长的主导原因;行业结构、能源结构整体上对碳排放量影响较小;能源利用效率提高是工业节能减排成效的最主要贡献因素,对碳排放量变化的贡献率达-140.80%.通过对天津市工业行业的进一步分析可知,能源密集型行业严重影响了工业能源消费碳排放量的变化. 

Carbon Emission Accounting and Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption in the Industrial Sub-Sectors of Tianjin City

With the rapid development of industry in Tianjin City,energy consumption in the industrial sub-sectorshas grown continuously,and now accounts for 67% of the city’s total energy consumption.Based on the carbon emission coefficient of energy consumption,which was recommended by the IPCC,and the statistical analysis of energy calorific valuein China,the measurement methods of carbon emissions were established.Analysis of carbon emission time series for industrial energy consumption in Tianjin City was carried out during the period 1999-2009.The results showed that in the past decade,the average annual growth rate of carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption in Tianjin was 10.41%,which was lower than the average growth rate of the industrial economy(58.53%).The industrial energy intensity and carbon intensity showed a downward trend;from 1999 to 2009,the carbon emission intensity decreased from 2.38 t/10,000 Yuan to 0.68 t/10,000 Yuan,which indicated some success in energy-saving and carbon reduction in industry in Tianjin City.Consumption of coal accounted for 57.80% of the terminal energy consumption in industry,which was higher than that in either Beijing or Shanghai.According to the results of carbon emissions,the four influencing factors(industrial economy scale,industrial structure,energy efficiency and energy structure)on carbon emissions change were analyzed by the LMDI decomposition method.The results showed that:1) the industrial economy scale is the dominant factor in the increase of carbon emissions;2) industry and energy structure have little effects on industrial carbon emissions;and,3) energy efficiency is the key factor to reducing carbon emissions,contributing-140.80% to changes in carbon emissions.Results of further decomposition analysis indicated that development of energy-intensive industries was the major factor which determines carbon emissions from energy consumption in the industrial sub-sectors of Tianjin City.