基于IPAT扩展模型分析人口因素对碳排放的影响

以5个典型国家(中国、日本、印度、德国和美国)为研究对象,利用IPAT模型比较分析了人口总量、能源强度和人均财富对碳排放的影响程度.结果表明:中国和印度的人口总量是影响其碳排放变化的主要因素；而美国和日本财富的积累刺激碳排放增加的作用明显.基于1978-2007年中国人口和能源相关数据,以STIRPAT模型为框架,分别构建了总人口模型及家庭户模型,用于分析我国人口数量、人口结构、能源强度及消费变化对碳排放产生的影响.经模型验证发现,家庭户模型的解释力度总体优于总人口模型.碳排放量的各解释因素按其影响程度的大小依次为平均家庭户规模、人均居民消费额、人口结构、能源强度和家庭户数.针对适应低碳发展的人口政策提出了相关建议.

Analysis of Impacts of Demographic Factors on Carbon Emissions based on the IPAT Model

Using the IPAT model,effects on carbon emissions of population,energy intensity and wealth per capita were analyzed in the five countries of China,Japan,India,Germany and the United States,as well as on the global average level.The results showed that in China and India,population was the major factor determining carbon emissions,but the accumulation of national wealth was the main source of carbon emissions in developed countries such as the USA and Japan.In addition,using the STIRPAT model as a framework,the total population and the household modes were constructed based on population and energy data from 1978 to 2007 in China.The impacts on carbon emissions of population size,population structure,technology development and residential consumption were tested by these models.It was revealed that the performance of the household model on carbon emission growth was better than that of total population model,and the impacts of different factors on carbon emissions decreased in the following order: average household size > amount of per capita consumption > population structure > energy density > number of households.Relevant recommendations based on low-carbon development were made for the determination of population policies.