关中地区散煤源PM2.5污染防治的健康经济效益评估

受不良地形因素影响，加之采暖季散煤燃烧现象严重，陕西省关中地区冬季雾霾天气频发. 自2017年散煤治理相关奖补政策出台以来，区域空气质量状况改善明显. 本研究基于2020年冬季实地调研信息和相关统计数据，评价了2017—2020年关中地区7市(区)的散煤治理成效，采用箱式模型分析了散煤源对PM_2.5浓度的贡献情况，并进一步根据泊松回归模型评估了散煤治理带来的健康经济效益. 结果表明:关中地区2017—2020年散煤削减总量达77.79×104 t，西安市与渭南市的散煤削减总量较高，杨陵示范区治理进程最快(散煤替代率达100%). 2017—2020年采暖季散煤源排放的PM_2.5浓度降低了7.2 μg/m3，对大气PM_2.5浓度的贡献率降低了5.4%，对PM_2.5浓度改善的贡献率达17.4%. 2017—2020年关中地区散煤燃烧源PM_2.5减排使得居民过早死亡率降低了1.50×10?5〔95%CI (置信区间):3.66×10?6~2.62×10?5〕，降幅达98.2%；发病率(门诊、住院及慢性支气管炎的发生率)降低了4.11×10?4(95%CI:1.71×10?4~6.59×10?4)，降幅达98.3%. 研究显示，2017—2020年关中地区散煤综合替代率达98.36%，相应的PM_2.5减排量超过0.5×104 t，所带来的健康总受益人数约10 662人，共可获得约1 411.65×106元的经济效益. 

Health and Economic Benefits of Control of PM2.5 Pollution from Residential Coal Combustion in Guanzhong Area

Affected by the unfavorable topographical conditions and the massive residential coal combustion in the winter heating season, haze events occur frequently in the Guanzhong area of Shaanxi Province. Since the implementation of the residential coal combustion control policies in 2017, the regional air quality has improved significantly. Based on the field investigation of the residential coal usage and local statistical data, the residential coal control in 7 cities (districts) in Guanzhong area from 2017 to 2020 was evaluated. In this study, the contribution of residential coal combustion to ambient PM_2.5 was estimated by the Box model, and the health and economic benefits were evaluated by the Poisson regression model. The results showed that residential coal combustion was effectively controlled in Guanzhong area from 2017 to 2020, with a total reduction of 77.79×104 t. The reduction in Xi'an and Weinan were the biggest, and the substitution rate reached 100% in Yangling District. From 2017 to 2020, the residential coal control reduced the daily average PM_2.5 concentration during heating season in Guanzhong area by 7.2 μg/m3, and the contribution from resident coal sector to ambient PM_2.5 decreased by about 5.4%, accounting for 17.4% of the PM_2.5 improvement. Due to PM_2.5 emission reduction from residential coal combustion, the premature mortality rate of residents decreased by 1.50×10?5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.66×10?6-2.62×10?5), with a reduction rate of 98.2%. The morbidity rate (incidence of outpatient, hospitalization and chronic bronchitis) decreased by 4.11×10?4 (95%CI: 1.71×10?4-6.59×10?4), with a reduction rate of 98.3%. The research showed that the comprehensive substitution rate of residential coal in Guanzhong area reached 98.36%, and the corresponding PM_2.5 emission reduction exceeded 0.5×104 t from 2017 to 2020. The health benefit population was estimated to be 10,662 and the economic benefit was estimated to be as high as 1,411.65×106 RMB from the residential coal control in the Guanzhong area.