江西省土地利用碳排放空间格局及碳平衡分区

二氧化碳浓度升高，导致全球气候变暖，生态环境问题逐渐凸显. 为此，绿色、低碳和循环发展成为我国当前工作重点. 江西省作为长江经济带生态文明建设的重要节点，大规模的城镇化建设导致碳排放量增加. 鉴于此，基于土地利用和能源消费数据构建碳排放量计算模型，探究江西省2000—2018年的碳排放空间格局特征，通过基尼系数、经济贡献系数和生态承载系数等多种分析方法探讨区域内的碳排放空间差异以及碳收支情况，同时从经济和生态的角度进行碳平衡分区并提出针对性的策略. 结果表明:①江西省2000—2018年土地利用碳排放总量逐年上升，从1 215.687×104 t增至4 907.425×104 t，总体表现为净碳源，碳减排压力较大. ②江西省碳排放空间格局呈现北高南低、西高东低的特征，北部和西部地区的碳排放总量明显大于南部和东部地区，其碳排放总量与各区域内的土地利用结构以及能源消费结构密切相关. ③江西省历年的碳补偿率均低于34%且逐年递减，碳补偿率、经济贡献系数和生态承载系数三者均空间差异明显，其中北部地区的碳补偿率低于南部地区，南部地区、东北地区的经济贡献率和生态承载系数高于西部地区. ④基于碳平衡分析，根据净碳排放量、生态承载系数等指标将江西省各地级市划分为4个碳排放发展功能区域，即碳汇功能区、低碳经济区、碳强度控制区、高碳优化区. 研究期内碳汇功能区数量变化较大，逐渐转为低碳经济区；碳强度控制区和高碳优化区数量基本无变化. 研究显示，江西省土地利用碳排放空间差异显著，协同减排的困难较大，为此根据碳平衡分区调整土地利用结构，有利于促进区域协同减排，推动全省低碳经济的发展，缓解因碳排放引起的全球气候变化问题. 

Spatial Pattern of Land Use Carbon Emissions and Carbon Balance Zoning in Jiangxi Province

The rising concentration of carbon dioxide has led to global warming and the gradual accentuation of ecological and environmental problems. As an important node in the construction of ecological civilization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Jiangxi Province has seen an increase in carbon emissions due to large-scale urbanization. Therefore, a carbon emission calculation model was constructed based on land use and energy consumption data to explore the characteristics of the spatial pattern of carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2018, analyze the spatial differences of carbon emissions and carbon income and expenditure in the region through various analysis methods such as Gini coefficient, economic contribution coefficient and ecological carrying coefficient, so as to improve the accuracy of the research results, as well as to conduct carbon balance zoning and propose targeted strategies from the economic and ecological perspectives. The results show that: (1) During the study period, the total land use carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province increased year by year, from 1215.687×104 t to 4907.425×104 t. Construction land dominated the total carbon emissions, forestland played a major role in the carbon sink, and the study area was generally a net carbon source with high carbon emission reduction pressure. (2) The spatial pattern of carbon emissions in the region was high in the north and low in the south, and high in the west and low in the east. The total carbon emissions in the northern and western regions were significantly greater than in the southern and eastern regions. Total carbon emissions were closely related to the land use structure and the energy consumption structure within each region. (3) The carbon offset rate in Jiangxi Province was lower than 34% and decreased year by year, and the carbon offset rate, economic contribution coefficient and ecological carrying coefficient were all spatially different. The carbon offset rate in the northern region was lower than that in the southern region, and the economic contribution rate and ecological carrying coefficient in the southern and northeastern regions were higher than those in the western region. (4) Based on carbon balance analysis, each prefecture-level city in Jiangxi Province was divided into four carbon emission development functional areas based on net carbon emissions, ecological carrying coefficient and other indicators, namely, carbon sink functional area, low-carbon economic area, carbon intensity control area, and high-carbon optimization area. Among them, the carbon sink functional area changed the most, and gradually transformed into a low-carbon economic area during the study period; the number of carbon intensity control areas and high carbon optimization areas basically remained unchanged. This method can provide a reference for future targeted carbon reduction advice and future development directions for each region. The study shows that the spatial differences in carbon emissions from land use in Jiangxi Province are significant, the difficulties of collaborative emission reduction are great. Therefore, adjusting the land use structure according to the carbon balance zoning is conducive to promoting regional coordinated emission reduction, promoting the development of low-carbon economy in the province, and mitigating the global climate change caused by carbon emissions.