耦合观测数据-模型计算-案例分析的臭氧综合预报方法

当前臭氧模式预报和统计预报的技术难以满足不同地域精细化环境管理需求，亟需构建稳定性高、实用性强的本地化臭氧预报方法. 本研究通过构建臭氧预报工作流程并明确臭氧预报流程中相关技术参数和要求，以陕西省及其省会城市—西安市为例分析历史气象和环境空气质量数据，获取陕西省臭氧污染规律以及西安市不同气象条件下臭氧等级分布规律和典型案例预报要点，确立人工订正经验技术集的方法，明确案例库构建、会商和预报回顾机制的相关要求，旨为臭氧预报模式的本地化提供科学的技术路线. 结果表明:通过臭氧预报效果评估与结果择优、人工订正、预报会商及预报结果回顾所组成的臭氧业务化预报工作流程具备切实可行性；此外，陕西省臭氧浓度与相对湿度、气压和风速均呈显著负相关，与温度呈显著正相关，臭氧预报时应重点关注日均温度大于28 ℃、日最大温度大于34 ℃、相对湿度小于57%、气压低于959 hPa、风速小于2.3 m/s的气象条件下的臭氧等级. 

Ozone Forecast Technology and Method Based on Numerical Model Results and Historical Case Analysis

At present, the stability of ozone forecast products provided by numerical model and statistical model in Shaanxi Province could not meet the needs of refined environmental management. It is urgent to develop a practical and local ozone forecasting method in Shaanxi Province. In this study, the ozone forecast workflow is constructed and the relevant technical parameters and requirements are defined. Taking Shaanxi Province and Xi'an City as examples, we analyzed the historical meteorological and ambient air quality data to obtain the ozone pollution pattern in Shaanxi Province, and the distribution characteristics of ozone level under different meteorological conditions in Xi'an and the key points of typical case forecast. The relevant requirements for the construction, consultation and forecast review mechanisms of regular case meetings were clarified, which provides a scientific and technical route for local ozone forecast model. The research shows that the ozone operational forecast workflow consisting of ozone forecast effect evaluation and result selection, manual correction, forecast consultation and forecast result review is feasible. In addition, ozone concentration has a significant negative correlation with relative humidity, air pressure and wind speed, and a significant positive correlation with temperature. The ozone forecast should focus on the ozone pollution level under the meteorological conditions of daily average temperature higher than 28 ℃, daily maximum temperature higher than 34 ℃, relative humidity lower than 57%, air pressure lower than 959 hPa and wind speed lower than 2.3 m/s.