环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究

确定环境规划中情景分析的步骤和方法主要包括：对象和焦点问题及关键决策识别，核心要素识别，驱动因子列举，驱动因子重要性和不确定性排序，核心情景驱动选择和情景勾画，情景的丰富和应用。以邛海流域的环境规划为案例进行分析，设计了2005～2015年的4种情景，并利用系统动力学模型(SD)和不确定性模糊多目标模型(IFMOP)对情景进行了定量描述和分析。结果显示，邛海的环境污染压力正在增大，污染源治理和生态工程是需要优先考虑的项目，但所需的投资巨大，对地方财政造成很大压力，需要寻求新的投资途径并加强环境管制。

Scenario Analysis and Its Application in Environmental Planning

The method of scenario analysis is introduced into environmental planning. Based on former studies, the main steps suitable for environmental planning are proposed as follows: identifying objects, focal issues and key decisions, listing core elements, ranking driving forces by importance and uncertainty, selecting central scenarios, plotting drivers and scenarios, fleshing out scenarios and putting into practices. Besides, Lake Qionghai Basin, Sichuan Province is further employed as a case study. With system dynamics (SD) model and inexact fuzzy multiobjective programming (IFMOP) model, four scenarios from 2005 to 2015 are properly designed, scientifically quantified and finally analyzed. Results indicate that the basin is facing more and more pollutions; however the related investment is rather a big burden for the local economy. Apparently, seeking new investments is urgent for the environmental improvement in Lake Qionghai Basin.