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大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台的开发及应用
引用本文:邢佳,王书肖,朱云,丁点,龙世程,田皓中,JANG Carey,郝吉明.大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台的开发及应用[J].环境科学研究,2019,32(10):1713-1719.
作者姓名:邢佳  王书肖  朱云  丁点  龙世程  田皓中  JANG Carey  郝吉明
作者单位:清华大学环境学院,北京,100084;华南理工大学,广东广州,510006;美国环境保护局,美国北卡罗来纳州27711
基金项目:国家重点研发计划重点专项(No.2018YFC0213805);大气重污染成因与治理攻关项目(No.DQGG0301);国家自然科学基金项目(No.21625701)
摘    要:大气污染防治和环境治理的紧迫性和复杂性需要科学有效的决策,而以费效评估为标志的综合决策评估模型是支撑环境决策和管理的重要工具.当前以ABaCAS(Air Pollution Control Cost-Benefit and Attainment Assessment System,空气污染控制成本效益与达标评估系统)为代表的综合决策评估模型可以实现对特定减排方案的费效评估,然而无法支持开展基于费效的达标路径优化,以及对应不同环境目标下减排策略的优化制定.针对上述问题,建立了大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台.该平台以ABaCAS的4个核心模块为基础,建立了新的基于环境目标的反算技术(LE-CO)及优化集成运行模式(ABaCAS-OE),实现了对不同环境目标要求的减排量反算,并对优化的减排策略下的空气质量改善效果、目标可达性、控制成本及健康收益进行快速估算.将大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台应用到京津冀及周边地区"2+26"城市,反算了2035年达标要求下的减排情景,以及对应减排方案的费用与效益.结果表明,相较于2015年,预测了2035年京津冀及周边地区的PM2.5、SO2、NOx、VOCs、NH3排放量需分别减排70%~87%、49%~85%、66%~74%、51%~66%、0~40%才可达标,并且该情景可以带来可观的效益,费用-效益比达3.7.未来大气污染防治综合科学决策支持平台的研究将进一步面向多目标、多行业、多组分、多区域的精细化调控技术,实现经济、能源、排放、浓度、成本、健康、生态、气候一体化的综合决策,以全面支撑我国大气污染防治的综合科学决策. 

关 键 词:ABaCAS  成本效益  控制策略  空气质量  达标
收稿时间:2019/7/2 0:00:00
修稿时间:2019/9/5 0:00:00

Development and Application of the Scientific Decision Support Platform for Air Pollution Prevention and Control
XING Ji,WANG Shuxiao,ZHU Yun,DING Dian,LONG Shicheng,TIAN Haozhong,JANG Carey and HAO Jiming.Development and Application of the Scientific Decision Support Platform for Air Pollution Prevention and Control[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2019,32(10):1713-1719.
Authors:XING Ji  WANG Shuxiao  ZHU Yun  DING Dian  LONG Shicheng  TIAN Haozhong  JANG Carey and HAO Jiming
Institution:1.School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China2.South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China3.U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, North Carolina 27711, USA
Abstract:The urgency and complexity of air pollution control and environmental governance require making policy decision scientifically and effectively. The integrated scientific assessment model system with cost-benefit assessment is an important tool to support environmental strategy and management. For example, the air pollution control cost-benefit and attainment assessment system (ABaCAS) can help policy maker assess the cost-benefit of certain control strategy, but cannot support the optimization of the control strategy for air quality attainment under different ambient air target. To address such issue, this study developed a scientific decision support platform for air pollution prevention and control in China. This platform is based on the 4 key components of ABaCAS, developed a new technology (LE-CO) that can calculate the emission reduction from air target requirement, as well as the optimization integrated assessment scheme (ABaCAS-OE), to design optimized control strategy and make quick assessment of corresponding air quality response, target attainment, control cost and health benefits from different control strategies. This study applied this newly developed platform in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding area, '2+26' cities, and used it to evaluate the attainment test, costs, and benefits of emission reduction scenario in 2035. The emissions of PM2.5, SO2, NOx, NMVOCs and NH3 in 2035 need to be reduced by 70%-87%, 49%-85%, 66%-74%, 51%-66% and 0-40% respectively to achieve the air quality standard. Besides, the air quality attainment scenario could also bring considerable benefits with the benefit/cost ratio of 3.7. Future study on the integrated scientific decision support platform for air pollution prevention and control will continually improve the technologies to support multi-objective, multi-sector, multi-pollutant, multi-regional fine control regulations. Future study on the platform is expected to achieve the integrated decision-making with the whole coverage of economic, energy, emission, concentration, cost, health, ecology and climate, to fully support the comprehensive scientific decision-making of air pollution prevention and control in China. 
Keywords:ABaCAS  cost-benefit  control strategy  air quality  target attainment
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