中国长江三角洲地区电力行业SO2排放控制的经济分析

总结了中国SO2排放总量控制与排放权交易政策研究与实施3个阶段的主要内容与成果。使用YRDEGS线性规划优化模型对在长江三角洲地区电力行业实施SO2排放权交易所能产生的SO2控制费用的节省、安装FGD装机容量的变化、可引起的脱硫变动成本的节约、SO2排放许可的市场需求、不同交易方式所引起的脱硫费用变化进行分析，得到以下主要结论：若发电量保持在2000年的水平，实现SO2减排20％的目标，采用排污交易脱硫费用将会节省38％，可以少安装FGD的机组装机容量达6．3GW；随着发电量的增加，对SO2排放许可指标的市场需求呈增长趋势，发电量的改变比逐步严格的SO2减排要求更会增加区域SO2减排的负担；当SO2排放削减率为20％时，在不实施排污交易时脱硫费用约为30亿～45亿元；实施跨省排污交易以电厂为交易单位时费用最低，约为6亿～28．5亿元，脱硫费用可以节省16．5亿～24亿元。

An Economic Analysis of Alternative Policies for Controlling SO2 Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta's Electric Generating Sector

The paper summarizes the research and application results from the three steps of the SO_2 total emission control and emission trading policy in China. The static mixed-integer linear optimization model (YRDEGS) was used to analyze the SO_2 control cost savings, installed FGD capacity differences, variable cost savings, SO_2 allowance market size as well as the SO_2 control cost increase during the trading and no trading scenarios. The following conclusion was drawn, that there are 38% savings of the SO_2 control cost could get from emission trading in the 2000 power generation level and with a 20% SO_2 reduction; 6.3 GW FGD capacities could be saved from installing; with the increase of power generation, there will be a bigger market for the SO_2 emission trading; compare with the more stringent SO_2 control policy, the allowance market is more sensitive with the increase of the power generation; with a 20% decrease of SO_2 emission, the SO_2 control cost should be around 3 billion to 4.5 billion yuan; and the full trading with owner floor, the cost should be around 0.6 billion to 2.85 billion yuan; at different level increase of power generation, with emission trading there are about 1.7 billion to 2.4 billion yuan cost saving of the SO_2 emission control.