资源安全的影响因素与评估指标

影响资源安全的因素主要有5个方面:资源因素是影响资源安全的最基本和最重要的因素;政治因素主要通过资源供需双方的政治关系以及资源供应国国内政治局势对资源安全产生影响;经济因素主要影响资源进口国资源进口能力;运输因素主要是运输距离的长短以及运输受干扰、控制的程度;而军事因素则体现在对资源供应地和资源运输通道的控制能力上。论文在分析影响资源安全5个主要因素的基础上,选择了14项指标,初步组成了资源安全的评估指标体系,并运用该指标体系对中国石油和粮食安全状况进行了初步评估,其结果是:从对外依存度来看,石油大于粮食;进口集中度粮食(小麦)高于石油;无论是短期或是长期能力系数,粮食都要好于石油;从资源储备率来看,粮食也远大于石油。

Influential factors and index system for appraising resources security

Based on the analysis of the five factors,this paper chooses14indices and establish-es an index system for appraising resources security.There are five indices in resources field.They are(1)resources support capacity(B)=KR s ?R c ,here K is the integrated coefficient of re-sources recovery,R s is the rest reserve of resources,R c is the consumption of resources;(2)de-pendence upon foreign resources(Y)=Q n ?Q c ,here Q n is net import resources,Q c is resources con-sumption;(3)ratio of resources reserve(S),S 1 =quantity of reserve resources?quantity of resources consumption per day,S 2 =quantity of reserve resources?quantity of resources consumption.The result of S 1 is the number of days that reserve resources can support.The result of S 2 is the per-centage of reserve resources account for the total of consumption in a year;(4)concentration de-gree of import from top three or top five countries (C)=the sum importing from top three or five countries?total of im port;(5)percentage of resources import(F)=the quantity of a kind of import resource?the total of world trade of that resource.There are two indices in political field.One is the stability of in ternational political relations.The other is the domestic political stability of re-sources export countries.Both international and domestic political stability has been graded into five levels and each has a ranging value from1to5,according to the political stability from un-stable to stable.In economic field,there are three indices.Two of them are the long-term and short-term capacities for importing resources,long-term capacity=100-resources import volume?foreign exchange reserve,short-term capacity=100-resources import volume?total volume of ex-port.The third is the coefficient of price fluctuation(P),which can be calculated by formula:P=(P h -P l )?P a ,here P h is the highest price of a certain period,P l is the lowest price of that period and P a is the average price of that period.There are two indices in transportation field,one is distance of transportation,and the other is the number of sea channels that resources transporta-tion ships passed.Ac cording to the transportation distance and the number of channels,they have been graded into five levels respectively and each gives value from1to5.In military field,there are two indices,one is the capacity controlling over the resources supply bases,and the other is the capacity controlling over the important transportation channels.They also have been graded into five levels respectively and each gives value from1to5.Some indices have been used for appraising the security situation of oil and grain in China.The appraisal results are as follows:in terms of dependence upon foreign supply,oil is more de-pendent upon international market than grain.Grain(wheat)is much higher than oil in terms of concentration degree of import from top three countries.Whatever long-term or short-term import capability,grain is much better than oil.In terms of resources reserve ratio,grain is higher than oil.