黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的耦合关系及交互响应

在分析生态保护与高质量发展耦合机理的基础上,以省域为研究单元评价黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调度,并与长江经济带进行对比;利用面板VAR模型定量考察黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的交互响应关系。主要结论如下：（1）研究期内黄河流域生态保护指数和高质量发展指数均呈现增长的趋势,总体均呈现中下游地区高于上游地区的格局。（2）研究期内黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调度整体呈现增长的态势,其中2003—2011年耦合协调度小于0.5,属于拮抗阶段;2012—2017年耦合协调度处于0.5~0.7之间,属于磨合阶段;耦合协调度总体呈现下游>中游>上游的空间格局,在省域层面山东和陕西的耦合协调度最大,宁夏和青海的耦合协调状况最差。（3）黄河流域的生态保护指数略高于全国平均水平,但低于长江经济带;高质量发展指数和耦合协调度都低于全国平均水平,与长江经济带的差距更大。（4）黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展两个子系统都存在正向累进效应和惯性发展特征,并且两者对于自身的影响程度都呈现逐步下降的态势,其中高质量发展对自身的影响程度下降更为明显;黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展具有正向促进作用,但由于生态保护和高质量发展水平偏低且内部发展不均衡,造成二者的作用机制不显著。

Coupling relationship and interactive response between ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin

Based on the analysis of the coupling mechanism of ecological protection and highquality development, the provincial unit is taken as the research unit to evaluate the coupling coordination degree of ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, compared with the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Finally, the panel VAR model is used to quantitatively analyze the interactive response relationship between ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) During the study period, both the ecological protection index and the high-quality development index of the Yellow River Basin showed an increasing trend, and the overall pattern of the middle and lower reaches was higher than that of the upper reaches.(2) The coupling coordination degree of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin showed an overall increasing trend. Among them, the coupling coordination degree from 2003 to 2011 was less than 0.5, which was an antagonistic stage;in 2012-2017, the coupling coordination degree is between 0.5-0.7, which belongs to the run-in stage. The metropolis in the Yellow River Basin presents a spatial pattern of downstream >middle reaches > upstream, with the highest coupling coordination between Shandong and Shanxi at the provincial level, and the lowest coupling coordination between Ningxia and Qinghai.(3) The ecological protection index of the Yellow River Basin is slightly higher than the national average. The high-quality development index and the coupling coordination degree are lower than the national average. The ecological protection index of the Yellow River Basin in the early stage(2003-2009) is lower than that of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while it is higher in the later period(2010-2017). The high-quality development index and coupling coordination degree are lower compared with the Yangtze River Economic Belt in all the years.(4) Both the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin have positive progressive effects and inertial development characteristics, and their effects on themselves are declining year by year, and the degree of attenuation of high-quality development is more obvious. The ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin play a positive role in promotion, but due to the overall low level of ecological protection and high-quality development and uneven internal development, the mechanism of action of the two is not significant.