黄河流域地级城市土地集约利用效率与生态福利绩效的耦合性分析

通过构建包含时间趋势变量的超越对数生产函数形式的随机前沿分析模型,对黄河流域2008—2017年57个城市的土地集约利用效率与生态福利绩效进行了测度,借助偏离系数的耦合度模型、马尔科夫链以及地理探测器等方法从市域和省域层面探究了两者耦合度的动态演进规律,并阐明了耦合机理与驱动机制。研究发现：（1）各城市的土地集约利用效率稳中有进,而生态福利绩效却呈波动下降的态势,两者的耦合度经历了“先降后升”的阶段性演变过程。（2）大部分省份耦合度的变异系数表现出扩大的倾向,尚有近1/5的城市属于低发展度低协调度的耦合类型;耦合度在空间上呈现出“东北—西南”走向的分异格局,重心整体向西南方向移动,其类型演变以大概率保持原有类型和向相邻的类型转化为主。（3）在驱动因子探测中,经济发展解释力>自然条件解释力>社会文明解释力;因子交互作用以双因子增强效应为主,非线性增强效应为辅,且社会因子是最主要的交互对象。

Coupling analysis of land intensive use efficiency and ecological well-being performance of cities in the Yellow River Basin

Correctly handling the relationship between land intensive use efficiency and ecological well-being performance is a special essential prerequisite for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.Based on the stochastic frontier analysis model in the form of a translog production function that includes a time trend var iable,we measure the land intensive use efficiency and ecological welfare per for mance of 57 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2017.With the help of a coupling model,distr ibution dynamic theor y and geogr aphical detector tools,in the per spective of cities and provincial levels,the dynamic evolution of the coupling degree between them is descr ibed,and the coupling mechanism and dr iving factor s are clar ified.The results show that:(1)The land intensive use efficiency of 57 cities has basically remained stable and improved slightly over time,provincial capital cities have gr adually for med the fir st echelon of land intensive use efficiency,but the ecological welfare per for mance has shown a trend of declining fluctuations.The degree of coupling keeps a high level,taking 2012 as the boundary,it has undergone the evolution process of"decline-rise".(2)The degree of coupling development between cities is uneven,because the coefficient of variation of most provinces is increasing,nearly one fifth of the cities belong to the type of"low level coupling"with low development degree and low coordination degree,although more than half of the cities have achieved the relative synchronization between development and coordination.What’s more,the degree of coupling generally presents a spatially differentiated pattern of"northeast-southwest",the center of gravity moves to the southwest as a whole,and its evolution is mainly to maintain the original type and transform to adjacent types.(3)As for the driving factors,the explanatory power of economic dimensions speak louder than that of the natural and social dimensions,that is to say,economies are the leading factors of coupling degree,while social factors and natural factors play roles of support and foundation respectively.The interaction between factors shows the two-factor enhancement and non-linear enhancement effects,and social factors are the main interaction objects.