1961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型及其生产潜力分析

了解气候变化背景下农作物气候年型以及不同气候年型下作物的生产潜力,对实现农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于1961—2015年西南区域单季稻种植区316个气象台站的逐日气象资料和单季稻生产资料,利用异常度概念分析了单季稻生长季的10种气候年型,解析了不同气候年型下单季稻的气候生产潜力,并分析气候变化对单季稻生长季气候年型及生产潜力的影响。结果表明：（1）近55年来西南区域单季稻生长季正常年型发生频次最高,平均21.5次,其次是少雨年型和多雨年型。从空间分布来看,正常年型多出现在云南南部和西北部、四川攀西和四川盆地南部的部分地区,少雨和多雨年型多出现在四川盆地大部和其他省市的部分地区,高温年型多出现在四川攀西地区、云南和贵州的个别地区,低温和寡照年型的空间差异不明显。（2）1961—2015年,西南区域单季稻气候生产潜力平均为7065.6 kg/hm²。与正常年相比,多雨年型气候生产潜力偏高超过10%,少雨年型偏低超过14%,降水是影响单季稻气候生产潜力的最主要因子。（3）气候变暖对西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型变化的影响最为显著。与1961—1990年相比,1991—2015年暖年增加,冷年减少。近55年来西南各省市单季稻气候生产潜力均呈下降趋势,1990年代以来暖年的增加有利于气候生产潜力的提高,而少雨和寡照年的增加是气候生产潜力总体下降的主要原因。

Analysis of annual climate types and potential yield for single cropping rice in Southwest China during 1961-2015

Annual crop climate types refer to different combinations of agrometeorological elements in agricultural year or the whole growth stage of crops, which affects the agricultural planting system, variety distribution, crop development and yield. It is of great significance to know and grasp annual crop climate types and crop potential yield under the background of the effects of climate change on the sustainable agricultural development. Based on the daily meteorological data from 316 meteorological stations and corresponding historical production data of single cropping rice in Southwest China from 1961 to 2015, and by calculating the abnormality of mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine, ten annual crop climate types were determined and the climatic potential yield of single cropping rice under different annual climate types was analyzed, and the impacts of climate change on annual climate types and climatic potential yield of single-cropping rice were also studied. The following conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1) The normal year showed the greatest frequencies with an average value of 21.5, followed by the drought year and rainy year. In terms of spatial distribution, most of the normal years were mainly found in the southern and northwestern Yunnan, Panxi and southern basin of Sichuan. Most of drought years and rainy years occurred in most of the Sichuan Basin and parts of other provincial-level regions. The high temperature year mostly appeared in the Panxi area of Sichuan, a small part of Yunnan and Guizhou. The low temperature year and scant lighting year showed least variations among different regions.(2) The average climatic potential yield of single cropping rice in Southwest China was 7065.6 kg · hm-2 during 1961-2015. Compared with the normal year, the climatic potential yield of single cropping rice in rainy year increased by more than 10%, while that in drought year reduced by more than 14%. Precipitation was the most important limiting factor for climatic potential yield of single cropping rice in Southwest China.(3) Climate warming had the most significant impact on the change of annual climate types in single cropping rice growing season in Southwest China. Compared with 1961-1990, the warm years showed an increasing trend while a decreasing trend was found in the cold years during 1991-2015. In the 55 years, the climatic potential yield of single cropping rice in all the provincial-level regions of Southwest China showed a decreasing trend. Since the 1990 s, the increase in warm years was conducive to the improvement of climatic potential yield, and the increase in drought and scant lighting years was the main reason for the decline in climatic potential yield of single cropping rice over Southwest China.