基于数学模型的海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响

气候变化导致的海平面上升对沿海地区构成极大的威胁,海平面上升已经成为全球重要的环境问题,受到社会各界的高度重视。研究建立了一维动态潮流-含氯度数学模型,计算了海平面上升对咸潮上溯的影响,结果显示:250 mg/L的咸度线随着上游来水频率的增大,咸潮上溯距离明显增大;一定上游来水条件下,随着海平面的上升,咸潮上溯界线向上游方向移动显著。并详细计算了代表口门在海平面上升10 cm、30 cm和60 cm的情况下,咸潮界线的具体上移距离,以期给三角洲地区城市供水、农业灌溉引水等提供理论指导,减轻海平面上升危害,以确保21世纪中国沿海地区资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展。

Impact of Sea-level Rise on Salt Water Intrusion Based on Mathematical Model

Sea-level rise caused by climate change poses a great threat on coastal areas. Sea-level rising has become an important global environmental issue that attracts lots of community’s attention. In this study, one-dimensional dynamic tidal current and chlorinate model is established, which can be used to calculate the impact of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion. The results show that the contour of 250 mg/L moves more distance to the upper reaches with the increase of runoff frequency; under certain upstream runoff conditions, the contour of 250 mg/L moves to the upper reaches significantly as sea-level rises. The distance of salt water intrusion from estuaries was calculated exactly in case the sea-level rises 10 cm,30 cm and 60 cm in the future. In delta region, the authors expect that the study can provide theoretical guidance to urban water supply, agricultural irrigation and so on so as to mitigate sea-level rising hazards and to ensure China’s coastal resources, environmental, economic and social sustainable development in the 21st century.