基于中亚气候数据的开都河流域历史气候资料重建

20世纪被认为可能是近千年中气候最暖的时期,但由于20世纪前50余年西北干旱区没有或少有实测气候资料,因此该区域20世纪气候变化评估存在很大的不确定性。重建这一时期气候资料有助于提高20世纪干旱区气候变化评估可靠性。论文应用Delta方法和典型相关分析(CCA)方法,结合1961-1990年开都河流域以及中亚3个气象站点1901-1990年逐月气温和降水资料重建开都河流域1901-1960年气候资料,并分析比较两种方法的精度和适用性。研究结果表明:Delta方法重建的各气象站逐月气温整体上优于CCA方法;CCA方法重建的降水整体上优于Delta方法。Delta方法重建的1901-1960年逐月气温序列不同年份之间变化幅度大,CCA方法重建的气温序列相对比较平缓。两种方法重建的降水序列中均表现出各个年份年内分布差异大的特征。

Reconstruction of Climatic Data in the Kaidu River Basin Based on Climatic Data of Central Asia

The 20th century was probably believed as the warmest period during the last one thousand years. However, the lack of observed climatic data during the first half of the 20th century in China, especially in the arid land of Northwest China led to great uncertainty in climate change assessment of the 20th century. Reconstruction of climatic data for the first half of the 20th century could improve the reliability of climate change assessment of the 20th century. Choosing the observed monthly temperature and precipitation of three meteorological stations from Central Asia during the 20th century and the observed monthly temperature and precipitation of four meteorological stations from Kaidu River Basin during 1961-1990, this paper reconstructed the monthly temperature and precipitation during 1901-1960 in Kaidu River Basin using Delta and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) methods and analyzed the performance of reconstruction and applicability of those two methods. The results showed that: the performance of reconstructed monthly temperature using Delta method was better than that using CCA method, while the performance of reconstructed monthly precipitation using CCA method was better than that using Delta method. The inter-annual variation of monthly temperature time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by Delta method was large. It was smooth and steady of monthly temperature time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by CCA method. The inter-annual variation was large for monthly precipitation time series during 1901-1960 reconstructed by both Delta and CCA methods.