中国碳排放空间相关与空间溢出效应研究

论文利用空间相关模型与空间溢出模型,结合全国30个省区面板数据分析我国碳排放强度与人均碳排放的空间效应关系,研究结果表明：2000—2010年间,碳排放强度局部范围内具有较高的空间相关性,“冷点”区与“热点”区空间格局相对稳定;人均碳排放强度局部范围内空间相关性较低,没有出现显著的“凸点”和“凹点”现象;碳排放强度溢出效应显著区域主要集中在东部沿海经济发达省区与中西部传统能源产品输出省区,人均碳排放溢出效应显著的区域主要集中在环渤海与长三角城市群聚集的省区,中部（两湖、徽、赣）和云贵高原的人均碳排放存在一定集聚效应,但东部沿海经济发达省区碳排放强度和人均碳排放与其各自省区碳排放占全国份额的发散效应显著,而中西部地区能源产品输出省份与其各自省区所占份额的收敛效应显著。

A Study on Spatial Spillover and Correlation Effect of Carbon Emissions across 30 Provinces in China

In this study, we take use of spatial correlation and spillover models, combining with 30 provinces data of China (Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan not included due to data constraints), to make a spatial analysis of the carbon emission intensity and per capita. The results show that: during 2000-2010, the carbon emission intensity was highly spatial correlated, and the spatial pattern of “cold” and “hot” points is relative stable. The spatial correlation of per capita carbon emission was low, with no significant “hot” and “cold” area. The region with significantly spillover effect of carbon emission intensity mainly concentrated in the economically developed provinces at eastern coastal area and traditional energy product provinces in the central and western China. The region with significantly spillover effects of carbon emission per capita mainly concentrated in the area around the Bohai Sea and the Yangtze River Delta where urban agglomerations took place. The central area (Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui) and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau also exhibited some agglomeration effect of carbon emission per capita. The share of carbon emission per capita and intensity in the whole showed a significant divergent effect in the economically developed eastern coastal provinces, while notable convergence effect was found in the western energy products output provinces.