中国环渤海地区县域土地适度非农化研究

基于土地非农化与经济发展阶段耦合规律的理论分析,应用承载力模型,开展了2008年环渤海地区县域土地非农化适度性的评价和土地适度非农化阈值的界定。结果表明:①受区域土地资源禀赋与经济社会需求的影响,经济社会发展对非农建设用地的需求与建设用地供给之间呈现为正反双向的"S"型曲线,两者之间的耦合变化规律以工业化完成阶段最为显著;②工业化初期至后期阶段土地非农化趋势表现为缓慢增长,土地适度非农化阈值为10.0%~17.5%;③工业化与城镇化驱动作用强度决定着土地非农化规模的区域差异。因地制宜、科学调控土地非农化进程是区域可持续发展的重要保障。

Moderate Land Non-agriculturalization of Counties in around Bohai Rim in China

The rapid socio-economic development of China is pushing the transfer of land productive element from agricultural sector to non-agricultural sector, which has a profound impact on China's resources and environment and the pattern of urban and rural development. It is an important breakthrough to regulate and control land non-agriculturalization scientifically and allocate the limited land resource between rural and urban area reasonably in order to ease the contradiction of land use. Based on the coupling relationship between land non-agriculturalization and economic development stage, this article evaluates the suitability of land non-agriculturalization in counties around Bohai Rim in 2008 by carrying capacity model, and defines the threshold of moderate land non-agriculturalization. The results show: because of regional land resource endowment and the requirement of socio-economic development, the demand and the supply curves of construction land represent forward and reverse Sigmoid curve respectively, the intersection of which shows the ideal state of land non-agriculturalization decided by the supply and demand condition of construction land; the calculation of the panel county data around Bohai Rim shows that the proportion of land non-agriculturalization ranges from 2% to 30%, and has a positive correlation with per capita GDP, particularly at finished stage of industrialization; the type of supply and demand condition of land non-agriculturalization transiting from surplus to overload with the economic development evolution from primary stage to advanced stage; while about 75% of the amount of counties are on surplus condition at the early industrialization, about 65% and 45% of the amount of counties are on loadable condition at the middle and later industrialization, respectively; the trend of land non-agriculturalization shows a slow growth from the early to later industrialization, and the threshold of land non-agriculturalization is between 10.0% and 17.5%; the differences of driving effect of industrialization and urbanization determine the regional differences of the non-agriculturalizated land scale; the amount of counties, with the moderate scale of land non-agriculturalization, accounting for 53.3% of the samples. According to local conditions, different types of strategies and construction land planning for land non-agriculturalization should be adopted to achieve regional sustainable development.